Research On The Influence Of Investor Sentiment On The Sub-new Stocks

For decades,with the rise of behavioral finance,many academic puzzles which cannot be rationally explained by traditional financial theories have been unveiled,but the securities market of our country,as immature and obviously not effective market,still exists many phenomena which are contradictory with the theories,such as the independent stock market,high bonus shares,and the speculation of sub-new shares.In recent years,due to the high leverage and the absence of supervision,the systematic risks of China's financial market have continued to accumulate.Under the backdrop of the global rate raising,its performance has been very weak.With China entering a new era with risk control as the premise,how to supervise the securities market in China has become a hot issue,so it is of great practical significance to promote the market to mature and stabilize and to guide the reasonable distribution of funds.From the angle of investor sentiment,this paper explores its influence on the trend of the sub-new stock market in China,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions to reduce the risk of securities market.This paper combs the basic concept of traditional finance,expounds the limitation of traditional finance in real financial market,and draws out the investor sentiment theory in behavioral finance,and emphatically expounds the influence of overconfidence,overreaction and herd effect on the investment decision of Chinese investors,and uses the method of constructing BW index,The closed-end fund discount rate(CEFD),the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index turnover(TUR),the number of new investors(NIN)and the average P/E ratio(PE)of the stock market were selected from January 2014 to October 2017,and the leverage factor was creatively added(the balance of securities margin trading).Based on the principal component analysis,this paper constructs the comprehensive Investor sentiment index,carries on the smoothness test,the Granger causality test,constructs the multivariate linear regression model,considers the lag period,and adds the fictitious variable to measure the asymmetric influence of the different investor sentiment on the trend of sub-new stock market.Research shows:First,the investor sentiment is the one-way Granger reason of the stock market trend in China's securities markets;Secondly,there is a limited lag in the influence of investor sentiment on the trend of the sub-new stock market;Third,optimistic investor sentiment has a significant negative impact on the sub-new stock,as pessimistic investor sentiment has no significant effect.Fourth,the market overall atmosphere and the trend of the sub-new stock market have significantly positive correlation.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research results,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to reduce the risk of China's securities market from two aspects:how to invest prudently and how to supervise carefully.