Research On The Influence Of Financial Lever On Economic Fluctuation

Since the reform and opening up,along with the rapid economic growth in China,the level of China's financial leverage has also been rising.Especially after the financial crisis of 2008,with the launch of the government's “four trillion” economic stimulus policy,the level of financial leverage in China is even higher.Rapidly rising.However,since the 1980 s,the degree of integration between the financial sector and the entity sector has continued to rise,and the impact of financial leverage on the macroeconomy has also begun to arouse growing concern.For this reason,from December 18 to 21,2015,Beijing convened the Central Economic Work Conference.At the meeting,“de-leverage” was established as one of the five major tasks for China in 2016.As one of the five major tasks,deleveraging has received such attention from the government for the first time,showing that financial leverage will have an important impact on the macro economy.Domestic and foreign scholars' existing research on financial leverage and macroeconomic related issues still focuses on the impact of financial leverage on economic growth and the stability of the financial system.Research on the relationship between financial leverage and economic fluctuations has been neglected.In view of the fact that economic fluctuations are also an important part of the macro economy,from the perspective of economic fluctuation research,first of all,from the financial accelerator mechanism,investment risk decentralization mechanism,and financial innovation mechanism,the impact of financial leverage and economic fluctuations is analyzed,and theoretical research shows that There may not be a linear relationship between financial leverage and economic fluctuations,but there is a U-shaped influence relationship.Later,in order to further explore the impact of financial leverage and economic fluctuations,the paper used the multinational panel data of 111 countries from 1980 to 2015 in the world,and studied the impact of financial leverage on economic fluctuations from an empirical perspective.The study found that there is indeed a significant "U-shaped" impact relationship between financial leverage and economic fluctuations.After solving the problems of heteroskedasticity and endogenous problems that may exist in empirical research,the conclusion is still established.When the degree of financial leverage is low,the increase in financial leverage will cause downward fluctuations in the economy.When financial leverage exceeds a certain threshold,financial The increase in leverage will aggravate economic fluctuations and cause upward fluctuations in the economy.Further research finds that the effect of financial leverage on economic fluctuations has a heterogeneous impact in different samples.Specifically,in non-OECD countries,financial leverage has a significant U-shaped impact on economic fluctuations,while in non-OECD countries In China,there is no such effect.Finally,after adopting various methods for robustness analysis,the conclusion still supports the non-linear influence of financial leverage on economic fluctuations.Based on the results of theoretical and empirical research,combined with the status quo of China's economic development,in order to reduce the impact of financial leverage on China's economic fluctuations,the paper proposes the following policy recommendations: the establishment of scientific and rational policy-making procedures;implement financial leverage target management;improve The construction of financial leverage risk early warning mechanism;deepening the reform of financial supervision mechanism;establish and improve the socialist market economic system,with a view to adopting the above policy recommendations to reduce the impact of financial leverage on China's economic fluctuations.