An Empirical Study On The Spillover Effects Of American Monetary Policy On Chinese Economic

With the continuous development of economic globalization and the increasingly close economic links between countries,a country's monetary policy will not only affect its own economy,but will also affect the economic development of other countries through international spillover effects.China's reform and opening up has been going on for nearly 40 years since 1978.The opening level of China's economy has improved continuously resulting in international economic and trade cooperation becoming increasingly close,and making the world economy inseparable from China and the Chinese economy is also impossible to separate from the world.As the most important economy in the world economy,the United States accurately judges the impact of changes in its monetary policy and on China's economy.In conjunction with its own economic development,formulating economic policies that suit China's national conditions is especially important for China.Based on the status quo of China's and U.S.monetary policy,this paper selects the federal funds rate as the representative of U.S.monetary policy during the Fed rate hike phase.Moreover,it combines the reasons and channels for U.S.monetary policy spillovers,and refers to the current academic achievements to select the top ten Indicators,and the use of R language and Eview8.0 software on the changes in the federal funds rate on the existence of China's economy and conduction channels for empirical research.Firstly,this paper use Bootstrap rolling causality test and SVAR model to analyze the existence test of US monetary policy on China's output and price spillover effects,and then use the SVAR model to test the three channels of U.S.monetary policy and China's economic spillover: interest rate channel,exchange rate channel,and the trade channels separately.The results show that there is a spillover effect of U.S.monetary policy on China's output and price,which is conducted through interest rate channels,exchange rate channels,and trade channels.Among the three channels,U.S.monetary policy has the greatest impact on the interest rate channel,followed by the exchange rate channel and finally the trade channel.Based on the findings by combing with the Fed's policy of raising interest rates at the current stage and China's domestic economic situation and development status,suggestions on the spillover effects brought by China's response to changes in federal funds' interest rate are proposed from the perspective of the existence of spillover effects and the transmission channels.On the one hand,the existential perspective mainly includemaintain stable economic growth and strengthen the management of price stability;on the other hand,the main perspective of the channel of conduction is to further advance the interest rate of RMB,improve the exchange rate formation mechanism,maintain the flexibility and effectiveness of policies,and accelerate the process of RMB internationalization.This article elaborates the related theory of spillover effects,and analyzes the performance,channels and reasons of the US's monetary policy on China's economic spillovers.Together with empirical studies,it helps to reveal the laws of US monetary policy on China's economic spillovers.At the same time,it is of practical significance to provide some references for the formulation of China's economic policies during the crucial period of the raising of Fed interest rates and China's economic transformation and development.