Research On The Relationship Between Economic Cycle And The Credit Structure Of Commercial Banks

Financial globalization makes regional economic relations deepen further,with the innovation of financial instruments,the impact of finance on the economy is also increasing,and the interaction and mutual development between finance and economy is more and more obvious.As a very important part of the financial system,the credit business of the commercial banks plays a very important role in the stable operation of banks and the sound development of enterprises.With the increasing openness of the financial market,the deepening of the process of marketization and the gradual advance of the reform of the national economic development,the growth of the credit scale simply cannot meet the requirements of the bank's management,and the role of the credit structure is more important.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the impact of the economic cycle on the credit structure of commercial banks to improve the bank's profitability and enhance the ability of the bank to resist risk.Based on the existing literature research,the article uses the GDP growth rate after the HP filtering method to set the fictitious variable representing the economic cycle,the loan term structure and the concentration of loan industry of the commercial bank to define the credit structure of the commercial bank,in which the loan term structure is measured by the medium-long term loan ratio and the concentration of industry loan is measured by the square sum of the loan ratios of each industry.The research is carried out through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.In the theoretical analysis,the article discusses the importance of credit structure of commercial banks to the bank operation and the business development.The article analyzes the influence of the economic cycle on the credit term structure and the loan industry concentration of commercial banks respectively.On the basis of this,the article puts forward the research hypothesis:1,the credit term structure of commercial banks is cyclical;2,the concentration of commercial bank lending industry is reverse cyclical.In the empirical analysis,we choose 16 listed commercial banks for 2005-2016 years' semiannual data as samples to make an empirical analysis.From the bank aspect,the bank scale,leverage ratio,deposit ratio,net asset return rate,capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loan rate are used as control variables to construct the panel data model.Through OLS regression method,we study the correlation between the economic cycle and the medium-long term loan ratio of commercial banks,and the loan industry concentration of commercial banks.The empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the economic cycle and the medium-long term loan ratio of commercial banks,which proves that the bank credit is more concentrated on the medium-long term loans during the economic upswing.And relative to large commercial banks and high capital adequacy level commercial banks,the small and medium-sized commercial banks and low capital adequacy level commercial banks are more affected by the economic cycle.However,there is no significant negative correlation between the economic cycle and the loan industry concentration of commercial banks.At the end of the article,combining the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the previous article,the conclusion is drawn that the term structure of commercial banks has a cyclical nature,and this kind of cyclical behavior will bring adverse effects on the stable operation of the bank and the sound development of enterprises.On the basis of this,the article puts forward several countermeasures and suggestions from the aspect of banking and government.From the bank,we should strengthen the economic sensitivity,establish the reverse cycle mechanism,optimize the bank credit structure and optimize the monitoring system.From the government,we should reduce the government intervention and strengthen the financial supervision.