Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Grain Yield Based On Multiple Linear Regression

Firstly,this paper analyzes the factors affecting the total grain output of China in the past 1997-2010 years,and constructs a multiple linear regression model,a weighted multivariate linear regression model,a multivariate linear regression model based on the principal component analysis and a stepwise regression model.The 4 models were used to fit the influencing factors of 2011-2015 years respectively,and the fitting values of grain yield were obtained.Secondly,the fitting accuracy of grain output fitted value and the actual output value of grain are obtained according to the formula of the fitting precision,and the fitting precision of each model is sorted.The following results are obtained: The fitting precision of the stepwise regression model is greater than the fitting precision of the multivariate linear regression model.The fitting precision of the multivariate linear regression model is greater than the fitting precision of the linear regression model based on the principal component analysis.The fitting precision of the linear regression model based on the principal component analysis is greater than the fitting precision of the weighted multivariate linear regression model.Finally,according to the two models with relatively large fitting accuracy,the main influencing factors of grain yield in China are analyzed,and the following conclusions are drawn:(1)On the premise of ensuring the cultivated area,The utilization rate of chemical fertilizer is better than that of cultivated land.The effective irrigation area of cultivated land is better than that of pesticide.The amount of pesticide used is superior to the total power of agricultural machinery.the total power of agricultural machinery isgreater than the use of agricultural film,and the use of agricultural film is greater than that of drainage area,and the drainage area is better than diesel use for agriculture,and the area of the affected area can inhibit the increase of grain output.(2)Firstly,We should focus on improving scientific fertilization,agricultural water conservancy construction,irrigation guarantee rate.Secondly,we should make rational use of pesticides,do our best to balance the distribution of agricultural mechanization and improve agricultural efficiency.Proper use of thin films ensures the healthy growth of food crops.Finally,we should try our best to prevent and remedy the impact of natural disasters on the grain industry.