A Study Of Financial Crisis Contagion Based On Complex Network And SIRS Model

With the deepening of the economic globalization,the trade links between countries are becoming more and more closely.The countries of the world have become a huge and close network through trade connections,making the trade channels an important channel for the transnational infection of the financial crisis.Whether the financial crisis is contagious through finance,trade or expected channels,the ultimate end is in the real economy,and trade as an indispensable part of the real economy is self-evident.Therefore,studying the contagion of financial crisis under trade channels plays a positive role in preventing financial contagion and maintaining macroeconomic stability and promote harmonious social development.We make a theoretical study and empirical research of the contagion of financial crisis based on complex network and SIRS model.In the theoretical analysis part,we first analyze the formation mechanism and contagion mechanism of the financial crisis,as well as the connotation and features of the complex network and the infectious dynamics.Based on that,we study the disease balance point of the infectious disease model and the advantages of the SIRS model in the research of the financial crisis to made clear the analysis method of study.In the part of empirical analysis,we work along the way of network construction,model analysis and strategy research.Firstly,we build the trade network between the members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization.Based on that,we test the topological nature of the trade network.We find that the trade network has a larger breadth and a smaller depth,which shows a small world effect,and the financial crisis is more likely to be contagious among the nodes.Secondly,we build the SIRS model and analyze the infection between financial crisis and trade network.The results show that the financial crisis has the characteristics of rapid infection and long duration in the channel of trade.The transmission threshold of the financial crisis is 0.07,the closer the trade links between the countries(regions)are,the smaller of the crisis contagion threshold is,and the more easily the crisis is.The rate of loss of immunity increases and the number of infected countries(regions)will increase too,but the phenomenon is not obvious after the loss of immunity is over 0.5.Finally,we discuss the immune control strategy of financial crisis.Under the complex situation of reality,two points of financial crisis control strategy are proposed and tested.The results are as follows: in the period of the contagion of the financial crisis,the timely and effective compulsory isolation measures for the infected countries(regions)and the improvement of the countries(regions)are both effectively control the contagion of financial crisis.