| With the continuous improvement of China's economic development,the investment and financial channels of our residents are increasing,and futures investment is one of the most important ones.Futures investment has attracted large numbers of investors into the futures market with the advantages of small and broad,convenient and two-way trading.However,the futures market is a capital intensive market,and the distribution of wealth is extremely uneven.According to statistics,in the futures market over ninety percent of the investors were losing money,about five percent of the investors can keep the balance of profit and loss,only about five percent of investors can maintain stable profit in the futures market.This shows that the futures market is a high risk investment field.So,how can from the angle of scientific methodology to analyze the futures trading,the use of scientific methodology to guide individual investors a more systematic trading system formed in the process of futures trading,in order to reduce losses and increase the profit become the central issue discussed in this paper.Guided by the methodology of science and combining with the experience of futures trading,the author will discuss the new perspectives and paradigms of scientific methods for futures trading from the perspective of inductive deduction,falsification,historicism and system science.From the inductive deductive method,futures trading opportunity discovery is a futures trading from the existing historical data through statistics concluded some rules and characteristics,then these rules and characteristics as a prerequisite for finding the deduction process of trading opportunities,and the trend of future market forecasts.From the method of falsification,futures trading is a continuous trial and error process.Because the futures trading opportunities through the inductive method,so the correctness of the signal according to the trading opportunities to make trading decisions is contingent rather than necessity,that is to say in the process of the transaction need to accept some trial and error costs,it is found that the real trading opportunities and inevitable cost.From the perspective of historicism,the formation of the core ideas of futures trading is the result of a Kuhn paradigm shift.The formation of the core ideas of futures trading is the inevitable choice for the mutual competition and the survival of the fittest of the stable profit ability of various trading ideas.When a core trading thought cannot maintain sustained profitability,it will cause to hold this core trading ideas traders continued to suffer losses,and put forward thenew idea of core trading traders to replace it,this core idea of futures trading is completed the replacement of paradigm.At the same time,futures trading can also be regarded as a specific application process of the La card theory of research program.In futures trading,when traders use a method of trading but occasionally suffered losses,he did not immediately deny this transaction method,but this method will adjust through the protection zone,the trading opportunities to meet this transaction method,finally realize the dynamic development of futures trading method.From the view of system science,futures trading needs to form an organic trading system.Generally speaking,futures trading system should include the opportunity recognition system,open system,and warehouse system,clearing system and risk control system.These systems,as the components of futures trading organic system,cooperate with each other to form a complete futures trading system,and ultimately achieve the goal of organic system function greater than the sum of their elements.This paper hopes to provide a new perspective for futures traders,especially individual futures investors,through the above scientific methods,so as to establish their futures trading system and finally achieve profitability in futures market. |
