Influencing Factors,Ecological Compensation Standards And Policy Response Of Farmers' Willingness To Fallow Winter Wheat

Water shortage has become an important factor that restricts the economic and social development in North China.How to give reasonable compensation to farmers so that they can effectively implement the winter-wheat-fallow policy has become the key factor to ease the shortage of water resources in North China.In this paper,questionnaire survey,opportunity cost method and Logistic model,orderly multivariate Logistic model and marginal effect analysis were used to investigate the main factors that affected farmers' willingness to fallow on winter wheat in groundwater funnels and the rationality of their ecological compensation standard.From the farmers' understanding,trust and satisfaction with the fallow policy,therefore,this paper discusses the farmers' responses and the influencing factors for the winter wheat policy in the Hebei groundwater funnel area;it aims to provide a theoretical basis for scientifically and rationally developing a rotation policy in the groundwater funnel area.The results are as follows:(1)Nearly 87% of the surveyed farmers accept the winter wheat-fallow policy and 13% of the surveyed farmers do not accept the winter wheat-fallow policy.(2)In terms of fallow willingness,farmer's educational level,the total number of agricultural labor force,the dependency rate,the attitude of farmers towards winter wheat-fallow policy in the groundwater funnel area and farmer's trust degree in government policy have significantly positive effect on farmer's fallowing intention,while the number of days of participation in farming,cultivated land quality and per capita area of cultivated land have significantly negative effect on farmer's fallowing intention.(3)Only considering the impact of winter wheat on groundwater,the proposed compensation standard for farmers who accept the policy is 518 Yuan / mu.(4)In the study area,21% of the respondents did not understand the fallow policy;15.9% of the respondents did not support the fallow policy;and 12.3% of the respondents were dissatisfied with the amount of compensation.(5)In terms of understanding,the farmer's education level,having a business concurrent with farming,the total number of agricultural laborers,and the area of cultivated land per capita all have a significant positive impact on understanding of the fallow policy,while the family total cultivated land has a negative impact on the fallow policy.(6)In terms of support,the total number of households,the proportion of farmers,the per capita area of cultivated land,and machinery use have a negative impact on support for the fallow policy,while the farmer's gender,dependency ratio,and level of cultivated land fragmentation have a significant positive impact on support for the fallow policy.(7)In terms of satisfaction,the farmers' age and occupation have a significant positive impact on satisfaction with the fallow policy compensation,and the farmers' gender,the farmer's per capita non-agricultural income,the use of machinery,and the total area of family cultivated land have a significant negative impact on satisfaction with the fallowing compensation.(8)The farmer's occupation has the greatest marginal effect on understanding of the fallow policy;the farmer's dependency ratio has the greatest marginal effect on support for the fallow policy;and farmer's occupation has the greatest marginal effect on satisfaction with fallow policy compensation.Finally,this paper proposes some policy and other recommendations such as the transfer of the surplus labor force,stronger government supervision of fallow policy compensation,stronger cultural education and greater promotion of the fallow policy.