The Research On Trade Effect In CAFTA Region

Since the 1990 s,economic globalization has become the trend in the world,and the economic relationships between countries have been becoming more and more closer.At the same time,the financial crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis has brought the world especially the east Asian a big economic catastrophe,China and Asean countries are faced with serious challenges,they need to combine together to realize the economic development.At this time,China-Asean Free Trade Area(CAFTA)arises.Since the establishment of CAFTA formally,in 2010,the economic trade between China and Asean countries increases quickly.But what influences dose the CAFTA cause after it is established,and which factors affecting trade between the two sides,these will be the key research problems.There are six chapters in this paper.The first chapter is the forefront,mainly introduced the research background and significance of the paper.The second chapter introduced the related theories and literature review.Based on the theory of customs union and regional integration theory,this paper studies the trade effect of CAFTA,and the literature review mainly include four aspects,CAFTA's development status,economic effects,existing problems and the development countermeasures.The third chapter is the development overview of CAFTA,mainly including the history of CAFTA,present situations and existing problems.Among the 10 Asean countries,Vietnam,Malaysia,Thailand,Singapore,Indonesia and the Philippines are the most closely connected with China,while Brunei and Myanmar are the least frequent.The number of mechanical and electrical products is the largest among the products trade between the two parties.The fourth and fifth chapters are the study of intra-regional trade effects produced by CAFTA,mainly including static effect analysis and empirical analysis.And the static effects include the trade creation effect and the trade transfer effect,while the empirical analysis mainly use the gravity model to study.Through the supply and demand curve of the Chinese and Asean markets,we have analyzed the two situations in which a product is more competitive in the Chinese market and a certain product is more competitive in the asean market,we can know that CAFTA generates far more trade creation effect than the trade transfer effect.In terms of empirical analysis,by establishing the gravity model,it is concluded that China's GDP and per capita Gross Domestic Product are the main positive factors for the trade between two parties,the institutional factors on trade have the minimum influence,the GDP and per capita GDP of south-east Asian nations countries has a certain influence for the trade,and the establishment of CAFTA can produce certain trade creation effect.Finally,according to the above analysis and the problems existing in the development of CAFTA,relevant policy suggestions are put forward in chapter 6.The two sides shouldcombine their own advantages,improve the mechanism for resolving trade disputes,take advantage of Asia Infrastructure Investment Band and One Belt And One Road.