Research On Credit Risk Assessment Of Manufacturing Listed Companies Based On The Logistic-KMV Model

With the diversification and complexity of credit risk,the problem of enterprise financing has been paid more and more attention by financial institutions such as the regulatory and domestic banks.As the pillar industry of our national economy,the manufacturing industry's ability to create wealth directly affects the overall development of our country's economy.Under this background,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the credit risk of China's manufacturing listed companies further and choose the appropriate evaluation model and index evaluation system to measure the credit risk of enterprises more scientifically.This paper starts from the research background and significance,through the review of domestic and foreign literature,firstly expounds the theory about the concept and features of credit risk,and introduces the basic principle and framework of the three stages of credit risk assessment method and then discusses the applicability of existing theoretical models in our country,and explains the status,characteristics and reasons of credit risk of China's manufacturing listed companies.Through the comparative analysis,it is concluded that the Logistic model and KMV model are combined to assess the credit risk of manufacturing listed companies in China better.Then,this paper selects 90 listed companies from stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen to make an empirical analysis.After explaining the data sources,this paper reduces the dimension of 23 selected index v ariables based on principal component analysis,and obtains 8 principal components to build Logistic model for application and verification.Then,the default distance calculated by KMV model is introduced into the original model and the Logistic-KMV model is formed.Based on the regression,the effect of the mixed model is observed after adding the default distance to assess the credit risk of China's manufacturing listed companies.According to the model results,whether the enterprise has the default risk is determined and its accuracy is tested.Finally,on the basis of summarizing the contents of the full text,this paper puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations from various aspects to assess the credit risk of manufacturing listed companies.In terms of research methods,literature research method,statistical analysis method and system analysis method are adopted conjunctively in this paper.Both theory and practice are emphasized and the quantitative analysis is mainly used in the research of actual problems.The empirical results show that the mixed model has good prediction effect,which is suitable for the current situation of credit risk of manufacturing listed companies in China and has some practical applications.