Credit Risk Assessment Of P2P Network Lending Based On Bayes Network Classification Model

P2P network lending industry rose in Britain in 2005,and gradually popularized in many countries and regions.It plays an irreplaceable role in the financing of small and medium enterprises and individual small loans.However,in the rapid development of P2P lending model,the credit risk of the borrowers of the net loan platform is gradually expanding.How to strengthen the credit risk management of the network loan is the decisive factor for the survival and long-term development of the P2P network loan platform in the increasingly competitive external environment.Therefore,it is the urgent problem to improve credit risk management level.In order to provide some reference for P2P network lending platform to build the credit risk assessment system,this paper focuses on the core of credit risk management system and takes it as the breakthrough point.Firstly,this paper reviews the relevant research of the P2P network credit risk.And analyzes the definition and causes of the credit risk,credit risk management,credit risk assessment model and the Bayes network classification theory.Secondly,the evaluation index system of borrower credit risk assessment is established for the P2P network lending,and the key index screening model,the Bayes network classification model and the evaluation performance comparison model are built.Thirdly,this paper randomly selects 35846 loan data for empirical research,including 35213 normal repayment data and 633 default data.The significant index variables are screened out through Logistic regression.Then the results of risk assessment are worked out with Bayes network classification model and compared with the results of Logistic regression,neural network,decision tree and other models.It shows that the credit rating of the borrower,the success rate of the loan and the amount of the loan are the key factors that affect the credit risk of P2P network lending.The Bayes network classification model has better interpretability and higher classification accuracy as a white box model,and it has the advantage in the credit risk assessment of P2P network lending.Finally,according to the research content and the research results,this paper gives the countermeasures and suggestions for the P2P credit risk assessment from the three aspects about the evaluation data,the evaluation index and the evaluation model.Firstly,improve the borrower's information examination and approval system and improve the quality of the information disclosure of the platform.Secondly,improve and perfect the evaluation index system of the credit risk and strengthen the examination of important credit risk assessment index.Thirdly,establish a credit risk assessment model to improve the effectiveness of credit risk assessment.