Research On Asymmetric Pass-through Effect Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation On Export Price Of Divided Industries

Over the past 20 years,the rapid expansion of international trade has witnessed the process of globalization.As the biggest economy in the emerging market countries,China occupies a very important position in international trade.Since the reform of RMB exchange rate system on July 2005,the RMB exchange rate has become more flexible and the influence on macro-economy has become more difficult.Both of the research on pass-through effect of RMB exchange rate and the analysis of cause and effect can exert a theoretical and realistic influence on our country 's industry and trade policy,which can play an important role in maintaining the steady and sound development of macro economy and achieving internal and external equilibrium to the economy overall economic balance.Based on the theory of exchange rate transmission,I divide the export industries according to HS classification standardst and choose ten export industries according to their respective proportions of the total export amount.I conduct empirical research on the RMB effective exchange rate pass-through effect by applying OLS method based on the monthly data from July 2015 to December 2017.The conclusions include:(1)In terms of incomplete exchange rate pass-through effect,PTM coefficient difference exists among divided industries.In the export price equation of the divided industries,the PTM coefficient of HS6,HS 15,HS 16,HS 17 and HS 18 arenegative,indicating that the appreciation of RMB will cause the export price of RMB to fall.HS7,HS12,andHS13 PTM coefficient aregreater than zero,and there exists reverse phenomenon,which means that the industry's export commodities prices will rise instead of declining,despite the RMB nominal effective exchange rate appreciation;(2)There is no asymmetric exchange rate pass-through effect in HS7,HS15,and HS20 industries when exchange rate rises or declines.While there are several asymmetric pass-through effect in HS6,HS12,HS13,HS16,HS17 and HS18 industries,which can be explained more accurately by "market share" theory;(3)The asymmetric effect of labor intensive industries in the direction of exchange rate fluctuation is greater than the asymmetric effect of technology-intensive industries;(4)There is no asymmetric effect on the amplitude of exchange rate fluctuations.Based on the conclusions above,our preliminary policy suggestions are:(1)accelerate the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade structure;(2)perfect RMB exchange rate system reform;(3)promote cross-border valuation and settlement of RMB;(4)reduce trade frictions by implementing the diversification diversified trading partners;(5)cultivate the awareness of exchange rate risk among enterprises.