Analysis Of The Impact Of Per Capita Contribution Rate Of Urban Basic Endowment Insurance On Per Capita Consumption

At present,China's economic growth rate is slowing down,extensive growth mode is also improving,and economic development is gradually entering the new normal.It is urgent to expand domestic demand to promote economic growth.The weak domestic consumption has troubled the healthy and sustainable development of the economy.The emergence of this problem can be attributed to some factors that have a deep impact on the consumption and saving,such as the endowment insurance system.Many literatures which research the consumption behavior of our residents,regard improving the social security system including pension insurance as an important policy proposal for the weak consumption.According to the theory of expectation,if a country's GDP growth is fast and social security is constantly improving,residents will have a positive expectation of future income,thereby promoting consumption growth.But the actual situation is not the case in China.Therefore,it is of great significance to study whether the present pension insurance system can play a role in stimulating residents' consumption.Based on the life cycle theory,this paper studies the impact of the per capita contribution of urban basic endowment insurance to the per capita consumption expenditure.The per capita contribution ratio of basic endowment insurance is the ratio between the per capita payment of the basic endowment insurance and the per capita salary,which can better reflect the personal payment burden.First,this paper summarizes the related consumption theories,including absolute income theory,life cycle theory,precautionary saving theory and liquidity constraint theory.In the literature review,this paper summarizes the related theories of consumption,including Keynes's absolute income theory,life cycle theory,precautionary savings theory and the liquidity constraint theory.On the other hand,according to the endowment insurance effect of consumption,the paper reviews related literature.After summarizing the literature,the reasons of the weak domestic consumption are analyzed.Then the paper elaborates the specific mechanism that how the endowment insurance influences the household consumption.This paper argues that pension insurance may increase consumption by increasing the future expectations,may cut down the consumption by reducing the current disposable income.However,the main way is curbing the consumption by reducing the current income.Based on the theoretical analysis,using data from 30 provinces except for Tibet in mainland in 2005-2015,the econometric model is established,and the relationship between personal payment and per capita consumption of urban basic endowment insurance is empirically analyzed.Taking the urban per capita consumption expenditure as the explanatory variable,the urban basic pension insurance personal payment ratio,the elderly dependency ratio,the child dependency ratio,the income and expenditure uncertainty and the urban per capita consumption expenditure lag variables are taken as explanatory variables.The results show that the per capita contribution ratio of pension insurance will inhibit the per capita consumption,which is consistent with the theoretical analysis.Finally,according to the results,some thoughts on policy are put forward,including lowering the endowment insurance rate,improving the pension replacement rate,extending the retirement age,achieving the national old-age insurance,improving public services and investment environment as soon as possible.