Research On The Moderate Scale Of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves

The central people's bank announced on February 7th,2017 in January this year,China's foreign exchange reserves data,the data amount,according to China's foreign exchange reserves at $2.998204 trillion in January,fell below $3 trillion.It was March 2011 fell below 3 trillion for the first time since the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3 trillion,among them in June 2014 China has the largest foreign exchange reserves had reached $3.993213 trillion,close to the 4 trillion mark.Just six years,China's foreign exchange reserves,a roller-coaster "roller coaster" ups and downs,it makes on the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is reasonable and moderate,the discussion of the people also more and more concerned about a problem:how many modest whether China's foreign exchange reserves.Since China became the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves in February 2006 with a foreign exchange reserve of $85.367.2 billion,discussions on the modest size of China's foreign exchange reserves have never stopped.The amount of foreign exchange reserves held by a country is modest,and there has never been a unified standard in theory and practice.Traditional law theory Triffin(Triffin rule)is in accordance with the proportion analysis method to measure a country's foreign exchange reserves is of moderate size,western scholars have developed by the method of cost benefit and estimate the moderate scale of foreign exchange reserves,which influence the most far-reaching is heller model and agarwal model,other and regression analysis,such as "chest effect" theory,this paper makes a detailed instructions.This paper studies the moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserve in 1994-2016,mainly using the ratio analysis method and the cost-benefit method.This paper,based on the trading of foreign exchange reserves and regulatory requirements,intrusive,debt service requirements four basic requirements,using ratio analysis method to build China's foreign exchange reserve scale of basic needs,which estimates China's foreign exchange reserves to the lower limit of moderate scale level.Then use the ratio analysis analyzed the above four requirements,again plus the resident foreign exchange demand and supplementary reserve demand,formed the highest reserves of China's foreign exchange reserves,which estimates China's foreign exchange reserves to the lower limit of moderate scale level.The two have formed a moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves,which is based on the empirical analysis of the actual size of China's foreign exchange reserves in 1994-2016.The empirical results show that from 1994 to 2000,China's foreign exchange reserves of the actual size is moderate,from 2001 to 2016,China's foreign exchange reserves of actual size has been in a state of balance,and in a certain period of time can't change the trend.Then,this paper points out the reasons for the excess of China's foreign exchange reserves and puts forward some Suggestions on how to use excess reserves rationally.