Research On The Influence Of Fair Value Measurement Standards On Analysts' Earnings Forecast Accuracy

The fair value measurement attribute has been controversial since its introduction into our country.Its inherent high risk characteristics such as measurement uncertainty have a great impact on the reliability of accounting information,resulting in many difficult problems to be solved in practice.In particular,fair value measurement items that directly affect the profits of an enterprise,such as gains and losses on changes in fair value,and impairment losses on assets,have great measurement randomness in actual operation,making it difficult to guarantee the quality of accounting information.However,due to the impact of the international convergence of accounting standards,the development of fair value measurement is overwhelming and has been widely used in accounting practice in our country.Therefore,in order to solve the problem of lack of systematic and independent guidance on the fair value measurement,MOF promulgated Accounting Standard for Business Enterprises No.39-Fair Value Measurement(CAS39)in 2014 and provided an independent set of fair value criteria System,which specified fair value measurement from various aspects of the practical application,aimed at improving the fair value measurement arbitrariness,improving the accuracy and reliability of fair value information,thus enhancing the quality of accounting information Protection.Securities analysts are professional groups with professional financial knowledge and analytical skills.The most important source of data for their earnings forecasts is the accounting information disclosed by the enterprises.The accuracy of the earnings forecast results is closely related to the quality of accounting information,especially the quality of the fair value information with great measurement uncertainty which has a direct impact on the accuracy of the forecast result.Therefore,by studying the impact of the application of "fair value measurement" on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast,we can verify whether it has actually played an active role in improving the reliability of fair value information and improving the fair value measurement arbitrariness.If the unfavorable impact of fair value measurement on the accuracy of the analysts' earnings forecast after the implementation of the standard is improved,then it means that the CAS39 does improve the quality of the fair value information so that analysts could come to a more accurate estimate of earnings based on this.On the contrary,it means that the CAS39 has no significant positive impact on fair value measurement.Furthermore,on the one hand,there are great differences between the state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises in terms of strategic objectives,management style,organizational structure and resource allocation.On the other hand,financial enterprises and non-financial enterprises in our country are different in business content,operation mode and risk level.Will these differences affect the impact of "fair value measurement" on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts? To answer this question is of great practical significance for our country to control the implementation of this standard more effectively in enterprises of different nature of property and different industries.Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between the fair value measurement and the accuracy of analyst earnings forecast,this paper constructs a level model based on previous researches and analyzes the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in 2012-2015.The 4-year sample size totaled 5135.The findings are as follows:(1)From a full sample perspective,the application of the "fair value measurement" significantly reduces the unfavorable impact of fair value measurement on the accuracy of the analysts' earnings forecast,indicating that the standard has obvious effect on improving the randomness of fair value measurement and improving the quality of accounting information in our country;(2)From the perspective of property rights,the "fair value measurement" in state-owned enterprises reduces significantly the unfavorable impact of fair value measurement on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast relative to non-state-owned enterprises,indicating that the implementation effect of the standard in state-owned enterprises is more obvious.(3)From the perspective of the industry category,the "fair value measurement" in the financial industry has significantly reduced the unfavorable impact of fair value measurement on the accuracy of the analysts' earnings forecast relative to the non-financial industry,indicating that the implementation effect of the standard in financial industry is more obvious.On the basis of conclusions of this paper,we put forward the corresponding policy suggestions: actively promote the "fair value measurement",giving full play to the guiding role of CAS39;attach importance to improving the quality of accounting information of non-state-owned enterprises,increase the intensity of external supervision;maintain the current supervision of the financial sector and strengthen the risk management and control in non-financial sectors;promote the development of securities analysts and enhance the professional competence of analysts.