A Research Of Investor Sentiment Impact On The Stock Price Crash Risk

The market index or stock price fell sharply in the context of no information preview,which was called crash risk.As an important phenomenon in the capital market,the "crash risk" seriously affects the stability of the capital market and the development of the real economy.On the other hand,most of the investors in our country are retail invenstors.Due to the influence of psychological factors such as overconfidence,conservatism,disposal effect and herd effect,the stock price has a cognitive bias.This deviation is expected to be investor sentiment.Economic history and theoretical logic have proved that investors' high or low sentiment in capital market will cause stock price to deviate systematically from its basic value,and it may have an important impact on themanager's decision.From the perspective of managers,this paper explores the mechanism of investor sentiment on the risk of stock market crash in China's listed companies,and puts forward policy recommendations to guard against the crash risk.This paper has combed the influence mechanism of investor sentiment on the crash risk,it's based on the manager's rational perspective and the manager's irrational Perspective.A shares listed company between 2012 and 2016 were sampled for this research.A panel data fixed effect model was constructed to empirically test the relationship between the stock crash risk and investor sentiment,and test the intermediary effect of the test manager's optimism in this relationship.And based on the difference between property rights and institutional ownership,we also test the mediated moderator between investment sentiment and stock crash risk.The empirical results show that:first,the high investor sentiment will significantly increase the stock crash risk of the future.Second,manager optimism plays an intermediary role in the relationship between investor sentiment and stock crash risk.Third,compared with non-state-owned listed companies,the influence of investor sentiment and manager optimism on the stock crash risk is stronger in state-owned listed companies.Fourth,compared with the listed companies with a low share of institutional ownership,the influence of investor sentiment and managerial optimism on the stock crash risk is weaker in the listed companies with high proportion of institutional ownership.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper puts forward policy suggestions from the level of market supervision,corporate governance and investor sentiment.