Study On The Systematic Financial Risk Of Chinese Residents Add Leverage

Chinese residents have been gearing up at a high speed in recent years,Chinese residents' add leverage directly causes a series of problems,including the abnormal fluctuations of the stock market in 2015,the serious bubble economy in some urban real estate since 2016,as well as problems such as the Internet financial down payment and cash loans.The subprime crisis in the United States showed that residents' rapidly increasing debt risk would spread to the financial system and trigger systemic financial risks.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to systematically study the financial risk of Chinese residents' add leverage.This article is divided into four parts.First,analyzing the relationship between Chinese residents leverage and systemic financial risk from the perspective of theory and practice;Secondly,we used the real estate sector datas from January 2013 to March 2017 to synthesize the systemic financial risk index.Thirdly,using the resident leverage variable as the endogenous variable of the MSBVAR model,the systemic financial risk of residents add leverage is analyzed empirically.Finally,it puts forward some policy Suggestions on how to prevent the systemic financial risk of Chinese residents add leverage.What can be concluded are as follows: first,China's systematic financial risk index has been rising sharply since 2015.Second,after adding the residents' leverage variables into the MSBVAR model,the larger periods of systemic financial risk index value corresponds to the high risk area system,and these high risks are mainly focused on the period in mid-2014,and2015 to 2016,It is the same as the residents with the adding leverage cycle.Third,the impulsive effect of the systemic financial risk index on the residents' leverage variables is positive,besides,the impact effect is obvious and the duration is long.So,our country should strengthen the macro-prudential management on residents' add leverage,standardize the personal credit and take different measures according to the situations of the cities,giving them different leverage threshold to prevent the systemic financial risk.