Study On The Fluctuation Characteristics Of Edible Fungi And Its Influencing Factors

In recent years,China's edible mushroom industry has developed rapidly.In 2016,the production of edible fungi in China reached 36 million tons and the total output value exceeded 270 billion yuan.Three-quarters of its annual production reached the world production output ranks fifth in the planting industry in our country,the edible fungus industry in promoting agricultural efficiency and farmers' income,circulation and utilization of resources are playing an important role.But the edible fungus industry there are also many problems,including the structure of consumption,production cost and the function of the policy factors such as price issues more prominent edible fungus,price fluctuations will not only affect the edible fungus production main body production decision,also produce certain effect to the agricultural products supply system.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to understand the characteristics of p rice changes of edible fungi products,to grasp its basic operation rules,to analyze its influencing factors,and to develop the edible fungus industry.Edible mushroom industry has become one of the dominant industries in Shandong province,which plays an important role in promoting rural economic development and raising farmers' income level.In order to promote the stable development of edible fungus industry in Shandong province,according to the reality of edible fungus price volatility in recent years,this article based on economic fluctuation theory,theory of demand and supply and the cobweb theory and related theory as the foundation of research,respectively from the large varieties of edible fungi and rare and precious edible fungus varieties of seven typical varieties were selected and their price fluctuations characteristics are described in the systemic analysis,using seasonal adjustment model and analysis method of the HP filter price fluctuations on the analyzed the seasonal,cyclical and i rregular change and trend analysis,by means of grey correlation analysis,unit root test,cointegration test and granger causality exploration production,CPI,raw material prices,the mechanism of the residents' income level price of edible fungi.The results show that the price fluctuation of different edible fungi has a certain circulation law and seasonal rule.The trend of price fluctuation of edible fungi in large variety shows a trend of decline,while the trend of price fluctuation of rare varieties in addition to almond mushroom is increasing.In terms of influencing factors,the price fluctuation of edible fungi can be affected by the production and labor costs,and the edible fungi which can be produced by factory can be more obviously affected by its own production.CPI,raw material price changes will cause most varieties of edible fungus price fluctuation.In order to reduce price fluctuation,we need to adjust and optimize the industrial structure of edible fungi.Increase the processing power of edible fungi and regulate the price fluctuation of edible fungi;Reduce the production cost of edible fungi;We will intensify publicity efforts to foster consumption culture of edible fungi.