Research On Early Warning Mechanism Of Operation Risk Based On Bayes

In recent years,with the continuous development of the economy,the influence of commercial banks on people has been increasing.It is a high-risk industry.In the course of conducting transactions,commercial banks will suffer if they do not control risk well.Impact,making its core competitiveness lower.This is closely related to the profitability of commercial banks and the security of the entire financial system.However,in the course of operations,accidents caused by mistakes made by bank employees caused huge losses to banks and households.For this reason,the banking industry had to adopt a series of measures to ensure the normal operation of commercial banks.The academic community has only focused on the risk management of credit and market for a long period of time,but it has paid no attention to the operational risks in the process of commercial bank's own development.In 2004,the Basel Accord was proposed to apply to the operational risk management of commercial banks.Since then,the banking industry in all countries has paid great attention to the risks brought by commercial banks in the course of operations and proposed early warning methods.However,the entire industry has not formed a mature system for the measurement and management of operational risks of commercial banks.There are still many deficiencies in many aspects,making the frequency of accidents caused by operational risks far from improving.During the development process from 1999 to 2004,operational risks were introduced into the framework of risk management.A large number of research scholars and bank employees have successively conducted effective research on operational risks of commercial banks,hoping to find a good measure.Compared with developed countries in China,the research on risk management and control is still in its infancy,and the risk warning management and controlmechanism is not yet mature.Although China has a lot of research on how to effectively conduct risk management,it still only stays on the basis of foreign research and elaborates on existing theories.It does not propose purely an early warning mechanism for China's commercial banks to operate risks.The banking industry needs to find a suitable method,combined with China's basic national conditions,to develop a corresponding operational risk early warning mechanism.Therefore,this paper analyzes the existing operational risk early warning model,and then introduces the Bayesian-based risk early warning model of this paper to assist the banking industry in better risk management and control.Therefore,this paper proposes a Bayesian-based method to measure operational risk to reduce the risk of commercial banks in the process of operation.This article is divided into five sections.The specific content and sections are as follows.Chapter 1 Introduction.It mainly describes the background and significance of this topic,and analyzes and summarizes the domestic and foreign research scholars' management methods for risk management of commercial banks.The second chapter describes the operational risk information.Including classification: According to the nature of the loss classification,according to the expected intensity classification;influencing factors: personnel factors,process factors,technical factors,external factors.The third chapter introduces some common methods of measuring operational risk.Including basic index method,standard method,loss division method.Chapter 4 proposes a Bayesian-based estimation method and a Weibull-POT model.The fifth chapter summarizes the main content of this paper,and describes the applicability of this model and the matters that should be paid attention to when applying this model.The main achievements of this paper are as follows:1.In the absence of loss data,analyze the loss of operational risk of commercial banks.2.Estimate the loss frequency and parameters by Bayesian method.3.Propose the Weibull-POT model and analyze operational risks.