Research On The Regime Relationship Between The Real Estate Market And The Macro-economy In China

Since the second half of 1998,the reform of China's real estate market has gradually advanced.Nowadays,China's real estate industry has made great progress,and has become more and more closely related to economic development,which has promoted China's economic prosperity,and the development of macroeconomics has also further promoted the prosperity of the real estate industry.The real estate industry as the pillar of China's national economy and our country's economic development are complementary and interrelated.As China's economy enters the new normal stage,the economic structure is adjusted and the supply-side reform is gradually deepening.China's economic development has gradually slowed,and more emphasis has been placed on quality.The real estate industry faces new opportunities and challenges.How to adopt appropriate policies to promote the development of the real estate market and the stable operation of the macro economy is the focus of this article.In order to study the relationship between China's real estate market and macro economy,this paper constructs the MS-VAR model.The MS-VAR model divides China's economy into different zoning stages,which is very good enough to portray the regional transfer process of our economy and the characteristics under different zoning systems.It can also reflect the smooth migration process of different economies in the economy.The asymmetric characteristics of China's economy are well analyzed.According to the established nonlinear model,we explored the interaction between China's real estate industry and macro-economy,providing a strong basis for China's economic macro-control,so as to improve the timeliness and efficiency of China's macro-control policies,and promote healthy and steady economic development.This article is divided into four chapters.The first chapter,for the introduction of this article,introduces the research background and significance of the real estatemarket and macroeconomics,combs the literature review at home and abroad,and elaborates the research context of the article.The second chapter introduces the theory of the correlation mechanism between real estate market and macro-economy.Firstly,it introduces the correlation mechanism between real estate investment and macroeconomic prosperity,and describes the mechanism of the impact between the two.Second,it introduces real estate prices and inflation.The association mechanism,respectively,depicts the interaction between the two.In Chapter three,a MS-VAR model is constructed to study the correlation between macroeconomic boom and real estate investment growth,and the economy is divided into different phases based on economic fluctuations.Characterize the different characteristics of the economy under different conditions and the probability of transition between them.Through the empirical study,the parameters obtained are compared,and the impulse response analysis is performed.Through this model,the real estate investment and macroeconomic development in China are predicted better.In the fourth chapter,we construct a MS-VAR model of the relationship between the average price of real estate and inflation,study the different characteristics of change and transition probability under different district systems,and compare the parameters.Conclusion We compare the results obtained in Chapters three and four,analyze the real estate and economic development in China,so that we can specifically target the macroeconomic situation and the development of the real estate market in line with China's national conditions and related policies.It is recommended that the economy be healthy.