| After the international financial crisis,the dollar exchange rate fluctuates greatly,which brings great exchange rate risk to our foreign trade enterprises.Therefore,China has launched the RMB trade settlement.With the advance of RMB trade settlement,the RMB has gradually precipitated abroad.In the context of China's capital project has not been fully open,the overseas RMB can not be returned to the territory of the capital through the capital account.At this time,the offshore RMB market will be established so that RMB holders can get the RMB out of circulation and establish offshore RMB circulation mechanism,which increases the third party's holding of RMB,which is conducive to promoting RMB internationalization.In addition,the development of the offshore market has played a certain role in the discovery of RMB prices to some extent.In all RMB offshore markets,the Hongkong market has developed rapidly because of its special institutional factors.However,with the expansion of the RMB Hongkong offshore market,the effect of domestic monetary policy has been weakened.In terms of interest rates,interest rate formation mechanism in offshore and offshore markets is different.Supply and demand are different,and capital cannot flow across borders."The implementation of the warranty loan" policy is indeed promote domestic enterprises to overseas,but to a certain extent also gives speculators more arbitrage opportunities.Frequent arbitrage seems to be more closely linked to the offshore offshore market.Through empirical analysis,it is concluded that interbank lending rate is different,and the interest rate of Hongkong offshore market has different influence on domestic interest rate.Overnight lendingrates did not show significant influence.The interbank lending rate of three months showed a significant two-way guidance trend,while the interbank lending rate with a term of one year,offshore market obviously had the trend of guiding the onshore market.In terms of money supply,the development of Hongkong offshore market and RMB cross-border trade settlement promote each other.According to the statistical caliber of M2,we can see that the development of offshore market in Hongkong has reduced the supply of domestic currency.But the RMB multiplier of the Hongkong offshore market is not very large,so when the RMB returns to China,it will not have a great impact on the domestic currency supply.Through the empirical analysis,it is concluded that the number of deposits in the offshore market of Hongkong has no significant impact on the domestic money supply.In terms of the exchange rate,there are two kinds of arbitrage mechanism,one is the foreign trade enterprises through offshore and onshore spot exchange rate arbitrage spreads,the other one is to exchange rate appreciation or depreciation expected arbitrage activities based on.The empirical analysis results show that,after the "8.11" exchange rate reform,the offshore exchange rate and offshore shore exchange rate show a significant two-way guidance trend compared with the previous one way guidance to offshore exchange rate.On the one hand,the growth of the offshore market has narrowed the gap with the shore market.On the other hand is the development of the offshore market and arbitrage activities closely,forced the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate in bank market.Finally,the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.First,we need to open capital account prudently and avoid speculative attacks on domestic financial market;two,we need to coordinate the offshore RMB's "return mechanism" and "offshore recycling mechanism".The three is to accelerate the market reform of exchange rate and interest rate;four is to give full play to the pricediscovery function of the RMB Hongkong offshore market. |
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