| For corporate value measurement,the P/E ratio(market price per share/earnings per share ratio)is among the most common relative valuation indexes.An enterprise's P/E ratio varies from country to country or from region to region.As is shown by a comparison of the P/E ratio data of the GEM since its establishment in 2009 and the P/E ratio data of the Main Board,the former and its fluctuation are obviously higher.Therefore,this paper tries to analyze whether the high P/E ratio of the GEM is supported reasonably,and identify all factors related to the P/E ratio of the GEM.The P/E ratio studied in this paper includes two aspects: average P/E ratio and individual P/E ratio.For the research on the individual P/E ratio and influencing factors,more factors than that disclosed by the classical model,namely those specific to GEM-listed companies,were considered and seven variables,including β-coefficient,dividend-payout ratio,return on equity,company scale,corporate governance structure and growth rate of earnings per share were finally selected.With research focused on the stocks exchanged on the GEM at the end of 2016,this paper analyzed the relationship between the individual P/E ratio and the above seven variables.Before modeling,this paper first described and explained the correlation between those variables and the P/E ratio with a scatter diagram,roughly revealing a linear relation in the diagram.Therefore,a linear regression model could be used for regression.Finally,it was made clear that there were hardly any correlations between β-coefficient,corporate governance structure,dividend-payout ratio and asset-liability ratio and the individual P/E ratio;While analyzing the correlation between the influencing factors related to the average P/E ratio,this paper,in accordance with domestic and foreign literature review and the specific characteristics of the GEM,proposed five factors that influence the average P/E ratio: interest rate,rate of inflation,amount of fiscal deficits,GDP growth rate and GEM index.Before the statistical method was applied to analysis,this paper first made a descriptive analysis of the relationship between the average P/E ratio and its influencing factors.In detail,a broken line graph was applied to graphical analysis,visually revealing the correlation between the average P/E ratio and its influencing factors in the broken line graph.However,the descriptive statistical result achieved completely based on the description above didn't gave a quantitative conclusion whether there was a correlation between them.Therefore,a further correlation analysis would have to be conducted.In the correlation analysis,a random walk test needs to be performed on time series.If the test cannot rejects that the variables are subject to random walk,difference should be used before regression.However,the difference leads to a loss in the information of the long-term relationship between two variables.So,a co-integration test should also be conducted before regression.If two series are co-integrated,a correlation analysis can directly be analyzed of them.Finally,this paper drew a conclusion: there is a correlation between interest rate,rate of inflation,GEM rate and amount of fiscal deficits and the average P/E ratio of the GEM.Therefore,those factors can be used to forecast the future trend of the P/E ratio,and guide investors to make rational investment decisions. |
