Investment Efficiency,Maturity Mismatch And Macroeconomic Fluctuation

Since outbreak of the subprime crisis,the economy of China has been into the downlink channel gradually,economic growth rate has dropped from 14.2 percent before subprime crisis to 6.7 percent in 2016,the economic development in the process of the continuous downward fluctuation caused the thinking of this paper.which problems are behind the economic fluctuations during the post-crisis period?What caused those problems?What's the relevance of these problems to business fluctuations?These are questions that will be studied and try to answer in this paper.As an investment-driven economy,investment plays an important role in China's economic growth.Based on the facts of China's economic characteristics,this article stands in the angle of capital allocation to analyze the problems exposed in the process of the economic downturn and the causes of the problems.The declining of investment efficiency and the degree of maturity mismatch deepen has been the major issues in the process of the economic downturn,macroeconomic data confirmed the existence of the above two problems,and the declining of investment efficiency and the degree of maturity mismatch be deepen has been closely related to the choice of the commercial banks to make loans.Industry loan data show that bank loans larger proportion to longer maturities industry,and those industries obtain the most part of bank's medium and long-term loans,the choice of banks result in greater deepen maturity mismatch,investment efficiency is also adversely affected.In order to analyze the relationship between business fluctuation and significant issue about the declining of investment efficiency and the degree of maturity mismatch deepen,investment efficiency shock and maturity mismatch mechanism is introduced into the RBC model for economic simulation analysis.The results of the model show that:The oscillatory fluctuations caused by the preference shock of the demand side and the technological shock of the supply side cannot explain the sustained downward trend of the growth rate in the new normal of China's economy.The shock of investment efficiency leads to a better explanation of the economic steady-state divergence;after 2010,macroeconomic volatility has been declined and financial system's risk has been risen,the model with maturity mismatch has a good explanation for the above two characteristics.The declining of investment efficiency and the degree of maturity mismatch deepen are the major issues behind business fluctuation during post-crisis era,According to China's actual situation,both have strong links to economic fluctuations.This paper will put forward some policy suggestions for related problems.