The Construction And Analysis On Forecast Effect Of Forecast Model Of Urban Residents' Per Capita Disposable Income

Applied historical data of the per capita diaposable income of urban residents in Gansu province,based on the optimization of the classical GM(1,1)model,the Verhulst model and DGM(1,1)model are futher studied,and put forward new methods of improvement for Verhulst model.The main content of this article is as follows:According to the data from different years(5 years,10 years,20 years)of the per capita diaposable income of urban residents in Gansu province,the GM(1,1)model is applied and analyzed,and get it has higher fitting precision for the short and medium time series,and it is fitting accuracy of the long time series is lower.And based on the GM(1,1)model,it is improved by introducing the residual modified model,the new information replacement model and the optimized time response function.The relations between the per capita diaposable income of urban residents and various sources of income(salary income,property income,operational income and transferable income)are studied through gery relational analysis.Verhulst model is applied to analyze the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Gansu province.Then,based on the winterization equation of Verhulst model,the optimized grey prediction model is established in optmizing the background value and initial conditions of the model,meanwhile,an optimized method of time response function is proposed on the basis of the least square principle and two improved models are applied.Based on the data of the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Gansu province and the grey relational degree,the application of optimized GM(1,1)model,optimized Verhulst model and DGM(1,1)model is analyzed and comparised,and choosing the best model,it is found that DGM(1,1)model is the best for the overall fitting of initial data.Then,the per capita diaposable income of urban residents in the next several years is predicted by the DGM(1,1)model.