The Influence Of Wealth Effect Of Asset Price On American Economic Fluctuation

Since 1980,the wealth effects of several large fluctuations in asset prices in the United States have had a certain impact on macroeconomic stability.The negative effects of asset price volatility,especially the disruption of asset price bubbles,have become an important factor affecting macroeconomic volatility.In the face of this theoretical and practical significance,we need to study the influence of asset price wealth effect on macroeconomic fluctuation,and draw lessons from the experience of the United States to control the wealth effect of asset price and summarize the enlightenment to the wealth effect of control assets in China.This paper analyzes the impact mechanism of asset price wealth effect on macroeconomic fluctuation in combination with consumption theory and Tobin-Q investment theory,reviews the development of stock market and real estate market since 1980,establishes four VAR models for comparative study,And compares the wealth effect of the real estate and the wealth effect of the stock market in this period.The empirical study shows that the wealth effect of American stock market and real estate market is different in different stages.Overall,the influence of real estate wealth effect on economic fluctuation is greater than that of stock market wealth effect on economic fluctuation.The economic system is too dependent on wealth effect to lead to virtual economy And the imbalance of the real economy,leading to economic crisis.Based on the experience of the United States to control the wealth effect of asset prices,this paper summarizes the implications for China:Firstly,rely on the real estate market to promote economic growth negative effect;Secondly,the regulatory credit risk is the necessary means to prevent financial crisis;Thirdly,the financial system is an effective channel to disperse the domestic economic risks;Fourthly,the stability of the financial market requires a reasonable means of economic policy control;Fifthly,reduce the economic system of asset price wealth dependence,attention to the development of manufacturing.The innovation of this paper is as follows:Firstly,this paper links the asset price wealth effect with the economic fluctuation,and constructs the VAR model of the asset price volatility effect on the macroeconomic and the fluctuation of the asset price fluctuation at different stages analysis.The impact of the stock market and the real estate market wealth effect on the size of the impact of economic fluctuations;Secondly,trying to volatility from the asset price fluctuations to explain the 1987 stock market crash,the 2000 Nasdaq bubble burst and the US subprime mortgage crisis,virtual economic policy will weaken the economic strength,relying on the asset price wealth effect to stimulate the economy there is a great risk,the steady and healthy economic development needs to return to the real economy.The shortcomings are that it only studies the influence of the wealth effect of the stock market and the real estate market on the economic fluctuation,and does not consider the influence of the volatility of the bond and exchange rate on the economic fluctuation.In the empirical analysis,only the national quarterly time series data were used for empirical analysis,and the analysis of panel data in different regions was lacking.