| In 2015,China has a serious stock market crash,the Shanghai Composite Index from the highest 5178 points decrease to 2850 points,almost cut off the middle line.In order to prevent the violent fluctuations from happening again,the Circuit Breaker was formally implemented on January 1,2016,but after four trading days,it was forced to suspend due to exacerbation.The investors attributed this series of dramatic fluctuations to stock index futures,which considered stock index futures as one of the important reasons for the stock market volatility that led to the stock market crash.Under such circumstances,it is of great significance to study the stock index futures market impact on the stock market and analysis of stock index futures whether led to increased volatility in the stock market.Therefore,this paper first analyzes the impact mechanism of the stock index futures market on the stock market,and emphatically analyzes the mechanism of the impact of the stock index futures market on the stock market.And then,this paper constructs the bivariate GARCH model and the VAR model,analyzes the risk interaction between the stock index futures market and the stock market,and studies the relationship of price guide between the stock index futures market and the stock market.The results show that there is a strong risk interaction between the stock index futures market and the stock market.Further analysis shows that due to the inherent correlation between the stock index futures market and the stock market,the risk interaction between the two markets is stronger.Thence,strengthening cross-market risk prevention and supervision has become an important means of stabilizing the securities market.However,in our current cross-market risk prevention and supervision,whether it is cross-market regulatory system,cross-market information regulation,cross-market stability mechanism,cross-market anti-control mechanism,there are some shortcomings,which may lead to dramatic fluctuations in the securities market.For that,China should strengthen cross-market risk prevention,change the existing division of industry supervision mode,the establishment of a unified regulatory agency—the financial regulatory committee,and learn from the British and American experience,gradually separate the PBOC from the State Department,the formation of "one bank and one committee" as the core of the three-level Regulatory system.In addition,in the cross-market information regulation to improve the insider trading mechanism and increase the penalties,while building a three-level information exchange mechanism;in the cross-market stability mechanism to improve the two cities trading system match,cancel the city market downturn and implementation New fuse system;cross-market anti-operation mechanism to implement a phased monitoring and identification,strengthen the real name system supervision,and improve the laws and regulations on the basis of the introduction of litigation group mechanism. |
