An Empirical Analysis Of Factors Affecting China's International Short-term Floating Capital

Since the 20th century,with the rapid development of China's economy,foreign trade and international economic exchanges have continued to increase,and international short-term floating capital has flowed into China through various channels,and it has used various forms of speculation on renminbi and Chinese assets.This leads to high speculative gains.This has caused widespread concern in the government and academia.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the factors affecting China's international short-term floating capital.Based on the concepts of international short-term capital flows as well as research background,this paper introduces the basics of statistical methods herein involved;analysis of two methods based from 1997 to 2017 data,the use of Granger causality test and multiple regression Analysis of Factors Affecting China's International Short-term Floating Capital.First,in order to satisfy the preconditions of the Granger causality test and the multiple regression analysis,the variables are subjected to unit root test and cointegration test on the sequence variables,and then these two methods are used for analysis.Using the Granger causality test method,the Chinese-American spread is the Granger causality of international short-term capital flows,and there is no Granger causality between other influencing factors and international short-term floating capital.For the multiple regression analysis model method,in the multiple regression analysis of the international short-term working capital of the four variables,the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate middle rate and GDP growth rate has not passed the test,so the utilization factor annual resident consumer price index and the The two variables of the American interest difference do a regression analysis of the international short-term floating capital.The result is that the regression coefficients of the two variables are significant,and the fitting effect is good.And using regression model prediction results analysis and cross validation to analyze the effect of the regression model,both tested that the regression model's fitting degree is better.Therefore,it is believed that the annual consumer price index and the spread between China and the United States have a great impact on international short-term working capital.