Study On The Optimization Of China's International Reserve Structure Under The Risk Of Assets

Gold and foreign exchange reserves refer to the amount of gold in official reserves held by a country and the abbreviation of foreign exchange reserves,which represent the level of foreign debt held by a country and the amount of wealth held.Gold reserve is a real hard currency of a country,representing the comprehensive strength of a country.As a gold reserve held by financial assets,gold reserves play an important role in stabilizing the national economy,inhibiting inflation and improving the credibility of RMB.Foreign exchange reserve is a major index to measure the strength of a country in the open economy.Under the background of economic globalization,the role of foreign exchange reserves is more and more important,and it plays a decisive role in international payment.Since 2006,China has become the world's largest foreign exchange reserve country,and ranks first in the world's foreign exchange reserves.In 2008 the global financial crisis occurs,China's foreign exchange reserves to maintain a growth trend,the total by the end of October 2016,China's foreign exchange reserves have reached $32308,but compared to China's holdings of gold reserves accounted for only 1.6% of foreign exchange reserves,gold reserves structure is not reasonable.On the other hand,due to the fluctuation of exchange rate in the floating exchange rate system under the background of market risk,internal risk and environmental risk may cause the loss of assets,how to adjust the structure of the foreign exchange reserves of gold in the international reserves in this case,improve the liquidity,safety and profitability to achieve optimal allocation of assets is the main content it is also an important issue facing the government.This paper uses quantitative and qualitative double research methods,in-depth research on the rational allocation of the assets under the risk of China's foreign exchange reserves of gold,with scale change and structure change since the reform and opening up China's gold reserves trend analysis,the level of development of various research results and many international advanced countries.The trend data of the five kinds of monetary gold and foreign exchange reserves on the data from 2007-2017 in the GARCH model as the research object,observe the change of volatility,further forecast the next period value at risk,and finally a reasonable choice of asset model collocation,reasonable structure of the final measured assets calculated in foreign exchange reserves,reasonable collocation gold and foreign exchange reserves.This paper studies the risk of asset allocation in foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves.The results show that the proportion of gold reserves held by China's gold and foreign exchange reserves is insufficient,which has caused losses to China's asset gains.On the other hand,the amount of foreign exchange reserves is excessive.The proportion of US dollar is too high.The proportion of the euro and the pound has room for improvement.The imbalance between the RMB and the euro makes it necessary to achieve steady state through government intervention,and other assets exchange rate can adjust itself.From a risk point of view,the risk of holding yen is the highest,followed by the dollar,gold,the euro and the pound.Finally,based on the above findings,this paper puts forward suggestions for optimizing the structure of gold and foreign exchange reserves from the perspective of reducing risks and increasing profits,mainly including the reduction of US dollar reserves and the internationalization of RMB.