Research On The Influencing Factors Of RMB Settlement In Cross-border Trade

World financial linkage is getting closer,The ills of the dollar-led international monetary system have become increasingly apparent,The United States' new president,Donald Trump,has made the world's economic development and trade face greater uncertainty.In this context,Continuing to promote the cross-border trade settlement of RMB can better safeguard China's financial security and provide options for avoiding exchange rate risks.In order to better promote the increase in the use of RMB in crossborder trade,it is necessary to study relevant influencing factors.For this reason,this paper takes the influencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border trade as the research object.By combing domestic and foreign literature Analyze the policy,development business,size,distribution and structure of RMB cross-border trade settlement issued during the pilot period,rapid development period and sustained stability period.It is found that there are still some problems in the settlement environment,policy implementation,business processing capabilities,and technical structure of export products.By constructing a more systematic mechanism analysis framework and put those following factors which is the level of economic development,technical structure of export products,the difference between onshore offshore market rate,stock of offshore yuan,offshore RMB market development level,financial market development level,the use of RMB inertia and policy factors into the analytical framework to find out impact path and impact strength.In addition,the monthly data from the above variables from January 2012 to December 2017 was selected to empirically verify the above hypothesis.After empirical tests,it is concluded that(1)RMB settlement of cross-border trade has the following influencing factors: economic development level,overseas RMB stock,offshore RMB market development level,currency use inertia,and exchange differences between onshore and offshore markets.Among them,the first four factors are positively related to RMB settlement of cross-border trade.The exchange difference is negatively related to RMB settlement of cross-border trade.(2)The three variables that have the greatest impact strength are the exchange rate difference between the two sides,the overseas stock of RMB and the development level of the offshore RMB market.Among them,the exchange rate difference has the greatest degree of influence and plays an inhibitory role.(3)The level of economic development and the inertia of the use of the renminbi have limited explanatory strength for RMB settlement in crossborder trade.However,as China's economic transition and the use of the renminbi are accumulated,the intensity of interpretation may increase.(4)The empirical results of the technical structure of export commodities are inconsistent with the assumptions,which may be due to the fact that China's export products have relatively low technological content and weak competitiveness.In this regard,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions from several aspects including the competitiveness of export products,settlement environment,exchange rate formation mechanism,offshore renminbi market,and business innovation,so as to promote the development of cross-border trade in RMB settlement.