An Analysis About The Asymetry Effect Of The Capital Account Liberalization On The Financial Accelerator

This paper mainly studies the impact of the liberalization of capital account on the financial accelerator effect.This paper measures capital account liberalization,thenstudy the asymmetric effect of financial accelerator based on the result.The existing research papers fewer study effect of financial accelerator bu means of capital account liberalization,and part of those are short of the empirical analysis,the data of some is relatively backward.So this paper tries to do some relatively research to cover the shortage.This paper is divided into two parts to study:the first part is the theoretical part.This paper introduces how the capital account liberalization affects the macroeconomic fluctuation by means of capital flows?monetary policy?investment?exchange rate?price of commodities inclouding five parts.In the empirical analysis,this papaer based on the method of Edwards and Khan(1995),from the angle of capital flows,use the least square method return quartly data of the international interest rate.domestic interest rate?money supply?GDP?infation rate by the relation of domestic interest rates and the international interest rates measures the total capital account liberalization from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2017,then calculate every quarter's capital account liberalization by simulating the state space model using the measure and status equation.using the capital account liberalization as threshold variables,investment?credit currency?exchange rate?inflation rate?gross domestic product as external shock variables to study its asymmetric effect on the financial accelerator?This papaer use TVAR model to count threshold value,and the capital account liberalization is divided into the low speed growth stage and the high speed growth stage,then study the impact to GDP?inflation rate and other variables.The empirical result indicates the threshold value of the capital account liberalization is 0.735867,the F-statistic is 182.317,and the P-statistic is 0.017.The threshold variable passed the test under the 95 percentage confidence level,proving that the TVAR model exists non-linear effect.Then using the threshold value of 0.735867,make the picture of generalized impulse response,we can find that the financial accelerator effect of capital account liberalization is obviously asymmetric.The effect of financial accelerator is more obvious when the capital account liberalization in the higher speed growth stage than in the lower speed growth.At last,this paper offer a corresponding propose from the perspective of rational control the capital account liberalization.