The Influence Of The Adjustment Of American Monetary Policy On The Global Economic Cycle

On 17 December 2015,the FOMC,FFR-setting board of the Federal Reserve,had made a decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points,increasing the FFR from 0-0.25 to 0.25-0.5 per cent.That is,QE(Quantitative Easing)-an unconventional monetary policy implemented during 2008 international financial crisis had been changed into tight monetary policy through regulation of interest rates and started a new round of raising FFR.Capital always chases profits.In view of the international status of the United States and the US dollars playing a role as an international currency of settlement for a long time,as the frequency of the US interest rate increases,it must be attracting the international capitals to flow into the United States.To a large extent,the shrink of the supply of the United States dollars all over the world can exert a great impact on global financial markets.The accelerated process of economic globalization and regional economic integration has caused the financial storm to be conducted in the surrounding countries and lead to a grater crisis.The characteristics of the synchronous fluctuation of the economic cycle between countries are becoming more and more obvious.After the global financial crisis in 2008,how dose the US interest rate increase affect the international capital flow and how it affects the world's economic cycle?Compared with the FFR hiked cycle during 2003-2007,are there any differences?Therefore,in-depth study of the American economy collaboration with the countries of the world,a quantitative analysis of the world economy conduction factors,to promote the healthy development of the economy fluctuation and influence,especially in response to sudden economic crisis,has very important practical significance.This dissertation mainly discusses the following matters:to be started with the dissertation introduces its background and research significance,illustrates the thoughts and methods of the former research and points out the innovations and shortcomings of them,and sorts out the former research achievements including the changes in United States' monetary policy impact on the world economic cycle through the channel of capital flows.Then this dissertation briefly reviews the evolution of the United States' monetary policy and its impact since the 1960s recession,including conventional monetary policy and unconventional monetary policy of QE.The influence of the adjustment of American monetary policy on the world economy is also discussed in terms of interest rate,exchange rate,asset price and so on.Then through filtering analysis,correlation analysis and other methods to confirm the linkage of the world economic cycle.Afterwards,this dissertation applies the model of VAR to do empirical research on the overflow effect on global economy by the adjustment of American monetary policy.The research mainly contains the effects of the adjustment of American monetary policy on the United States,developed economies,emerging markets and developing economies from the channel of capital flows.With the combination of empirical research,the dissertation clarifies the impact of the adjustments of the monetary policy of the United States in the atmosphere of superpower games in multiple views and dimensions.On this basis,it summarizes the current adjustment of the world economy after the United States enters the interest rate increase cycle,and provides China economy with related advice on how to face the adjustments of monetary policy of the United States in the aspects of economic development strategy and financial development strategy.