Empirical Study On The Effect Of Overconfidence Of Managers On Cash Dividend Policy

Dividend policy is an important link in the financial decision-making of companies and also is a hot spot in the academic circles at home and abroad.The formation of the dividend policy is the result of the game of the various stakeholders,which is not only closely related to the interests of shareholders,but also plays a crucial role in the development of the enterprise.Western scholars research dividend policy from different angles and come up with a series of research results,but there is no consensus on the explanation of the actual dividend policy.Due to the late start of China's securities market,the development is relatively imperfect,and there are still some "visions" in dividend distribution.For example,some listed companies tend to pay no or less cash dividends for a long time.The appearance of behavioral dividend theory provides a new perspective for the research of the unmanageable dividend of traditional theory.Based on the behavioral dividend theory,this paper takes the 2009-2016 A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as the research object,and uses the Logit model and Tobit model to analyze the influence of managers overconfidence on the distribution of cash dividend willingness and strength,and on this basis research on the moderating effect of ownership structure,we can draw the following conclusions:(1)Overconfident managers have a lower dividend distribution willingness and dividend payment strength.(2)The nature of ownership has a moderating effect on the relationship between managerial overconfidence and cash dividend distribution,that is,compared with state-owned enterprises,managers of non-state-owned enterprises have more obvious overconfidence.(3)Large shareholders have a positive moderating effect,that is,In companies that large shareholders account for high proportion,the managerial overconfidence has less negative influence on the distribution of cash dividends.(4)The increase of institutional investors holding shares proportion can inhibit the negative impact of managers' overconfidence on the distribution of cash dividends.