Research On Supply Chain Inventory Control Based On ARIMA Prediction Model

The inventory problem has been a big trouble for many enterprises.How to control the inventory of each enterprise in the supply chain from the perspective of supply chain is a hot spot in the research of supply chain.Researchers and practitioners believe that the choice of accurate demand forecasting methods can achieve accurate inventory control.However,it should be pointed out that this method tends to take the demand forecast and inventory control as two independent processes.How to make the ordering strategy scientifically of each member in supply chain is not only related to the inventory level,but also related to the inventory level of the upstream and down stream enterprises,so as to affect the inventory level of the whole supply chain.Based on the theory of demand forecasting and inventory control,this paper studied the supply chain inventory control from the perspective of demand forecasting and inventory management.Based on a two level supply chain where the distributors and suppliers using ARIMA(0,1,1)prediction model,the factors that influencing the ordering strategy and inventory levels of the distributors and supplier have been studied including inventory cost,shortage cost,smooth coefficient,lead time,and information sharing.The study found that,when the shortage cost is large,distributors and suppliers should increase their expected inventory;and when the inventory cost is large,distributors and suppliers should reduce their inventory level,which is consistent with the actual.The study also found that reducing the order lead time is helpful for the distributors and suppliers to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting and reduce the inventory level.In addition,information sharing can greatly help the supplier to improve demand forecasting accuracy,and reducing the inventory level.Based on the inventory control model of integrated strategy,the conclusion is proved by case analysis of H product of A company,and also found the value of information sharing is greater when the forecast accuracy is lower or the lead time is larger.