Study On The Influential Factors Of Price Of RAW Milk In Heilongjiang

With the rapid development of China's dairy industry and the continuous improvement of residents' consumption level,the dairy industry as the source of dairy industry has also been developed rapidly.By 2016,the stock of dairy cows in China has increased to 14.13 million,and the output of raw milk has reached 36.0 million tons.However,the frequent fluctuation of raw milk prices in recent years has had a negative impact on the sustainable development of China's dairy industry.Before and after the New Year's Day in 2015,the price of raw milk in China fell,and the interests of dairy farmers were seriously damaged.Dairy farmers' action has reduced the supply of raw milk.When raw milk is in short supply,raw milk processing will rise,resulting in difficult milk harvesting for dairy processing enterprises,while increasing the cost of dairy processing.Because of the severe fluctuation of raw milk prices,the raw milk market has become a vicious circle.Heilongjiang Province,as a big dairy Province in China,is also facing the problem of drastic fluctuation of raw milk price.Therefore,this paper focuses on the fluctuation of raw milk price in Heilongjiang Province.Based on the literature review at home and abroad,first of all,based on the historical trend of raw milk prices in Heilongjiang Province,using H-P filtering,Census seasonal adjustment method to analyze raw milk prices seasonal,periodic large fluctuations.Secondly,based on the economic cycle theory,the paper uses MS-AR model to analyze the transition probability and duration of raw milk price fluctuation,and analyzes the influencing factors of raw milk price fluctuation,including supply and demand factors,institutional factors and stochastic factors.Thirdly,based on the influencing factors mechanism of raw milk price fluctuation,the influencing factors of raw milk price fluctuation are analyzed qualitatively,and VECM model is used to quantitatively analyze raw milk price.Finally,based on the above research on the fluctuation of raw milk price and its influencing factors,the paper puts forward policy recommendations for the drastic fluctuation of raw milk price in Heilongjiang Province.