House Price Forecasting And Fluctuation Analysis Based On Time Series Model

In practical applications,there are many models for predicting changes in house prices and their volatility.Many scholars have studied the real estate prices by modeling various factors affecting house prices,usually using multiple linear regression models or characteristic price analysis methods.In addition,scholars often use the heteroscedastic model when studying price fluctuations,but most of the models are applied in financial markets,such as stock mar-ket and futures market,however,the ARMA-GARCH model is rarely used in housing price research in the real estate market.This paper aims to use the ARMA-GARCH model to study the forecast and fluctuation of the housing price index in Jinan,and to address the real estate market situation in the past decade,and to ask the following questions:Whether the price fluctuation of Jinan's real estate market has the charac-teristics of aggregation;how to conduct short-term forecast and fluctuation analysis of Jinan's housing prices;whether there is symmetry in the Jinan real estate market.Based on the above three questions,this paper considers that real estate as an investment product which will have the characteristics of maintaining and increasing value.The price series may have a volatility cluster effect.Therefore,the housing sales price index of Jinan City from January 2011 to December 2017 is obtained from the Wind database.The research object,based on the variation law of the sample data itself,tries to establish a linear time series model,and tests whether the residual sequence of the model has ARCH effect.If it is right,then add the conditional heteroscedasticity model family to study the fluctuation of house price,and use the joint model which is used to fit the price fluctuation of Jinan City,and considers that the residu-al obeys different distributions.Through the optimization and improvement of the model,I hope to find an ideal model for predicting house prices and their volatility.In the conditional heteroscedasticity model family,the EGARCH model is often used to verify whether the volatility has a leverage effect.Final-ly,I want to study the influencing factors of housing prices by the multifactor model in Shandong Province,and compare the multi-factor model with the time series model.In this regard,the paper is divided into five chapters,from the research background and significance,to the research literature,the real estate market status and theoretical preparation,and then design the research model and analysis,and finally propose countermeasures and suggestions.In the past ten years,the real estate prices in China have changed quite a lot.Nowadays,too many young people have become "house slaves",and the phenomenon of real estate speculation behind them and the " price bubble"are thought-provoking.In particular,the financial tsunami in 2008 caused a huge decline in financial markets,and the real estate market was also included.As a pillar industry of economic development,the real estate industry is vital to its healthy development,and the price and fluctuation of real estate is undoubtedly an important indicator for determining whether the real estate industry is healthy.Therefore,the main purpose of this paper is to study the internal law of housing prices,which is of great significance for preventing the ups and downs of housing prices and vigilance against the real estate bubble.