The Influence Of The Uncertainty Of Economic Policy On Enterprise Investment:the Function Of The Enterprise Finance And The Free Trade Area

Since the 2008 financial crisis,the global eco nomy has been fluctuating,and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)has increased,In particular,since the subprime crisis,the uncertainty of economic policy is becoming more and more considered the root cause of the slow recovery of the global economy.The unprecedented challenges such as the slow growth of domestic economy,the deepening of reform and the current complex and changeable international political and economic situation have brought great uncertainty to China's economic policy.An empirical study in the existing literature are used to test the impact of monetary policy on inflation,economic growth,employment effects,and scholars on the study of macroeconomic changes in government policy uncertainty,but on economic policy uncertainty is less research.Under the background of financial liberalization,China's entity investment rate is decreasing.The portfolio selection of entity investment and financial investment affects the entity's investment rate.Therefore,under the uncertainty of economic policy,the problem of asset portfolio selection is very important.In the field of trade,with the establishment of the free trade area,the influence of the uncertainty of economic policy on the investment of the enterprise is also a matter of concern at present.This paper studies the influence of the uncertainty of economic policy on the enterprise entity investment from two sides,one is the enterprise finance and the other is function of the free trade area.In the part of the impact of Enterprise Finance on EPU and enterprise entity investment,this paper uses the panel data of China's 2005-2015 years' manufacturing industry.Using the panel data regression model,the uncertainty of China's economic policy and the influence of the degree of Enterprise Finance on the enterprise entity investment are studied.The results show that the indeterminacy of economic policy has a negative impact on the average investment of the enterprise,and the effect of the enterprise finance on the firm's investment rate is negative,after joining the heterogeneity factor,the internal financing ability,the ownership of enterprises,the life risk of different enterprises,the risk preference of management,and the attitude towards future earnings forecast respond differently to the uncertainty of economic policy.on the part of the impact of the establishment of the free trade zone on EPU and corporate entity investment,Taking the Shanghai free trade area as an empirical test,study the impact of the establishment of the free trade zone on the uncertainty of economic policy and the investment of enterprise entities,Using synthetic control method to construct "comprehensive control group" Compar ies with the experimental group,and using fuzzy breakpoint regression and dual difference model to empirical analysis,the result shows that the establishment of the free trade zone has reduced the uncertainty of economic policy,thus increasing the investment of the firm.The innovation of this article lies in: First,from the two aspects of corporate finance and the role of free trade area,we use the uncertainty index of economic policy constructed by Baker to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise investment.In this paper,the use of micro enterprise data,and uses panel data regression model,in theory the mechanism of portfolio model down,using fuzzy breakpoint regression model,double difference method,various methods of synthesis control method,select the quarterly data in time,make estimates more accurate.