Analysis Of The Correlation Between China's Stock Market And Real Estate Market From 2005 To 2017

With the continuous development of our country's economy,residents'disposable income has gradually increased and their wealth has increased.Under the premise of satisfying consumer demand,the demand for asset preservation and value-added has gradually increased.The stock market and real estate market are two major investments in China.The channels have gradually received the attention of residents.The stock market has a natural role in financial financing,providing sufficient financial support for listed companies and plays an extremely important role in the development of China's real economy.At the same time,the process of urbanization in China promotes people's growing demand for housing.Real estate has become a quality asset that can preserve and add value.There is an increasingly close interaction between the real estate market and the financial market.The stock market and real estate market are the representatives of China's virtual economy and real economy,respectively.The market interaction between the stock market and the real estate market will have an important impact on individuals and society.It will not only help individuals optimize asset portfolios and increase wealth,but also optimize the allocation of enterprise resources,expand reproduction and promote profit growth.In addition,it can also provide reference for the development of government economic policies,restrain the emergence of asset bubbles,avoid the emergence of financial crisis,promote economic development,and maintain social harmony and stability.The thesis introduces the background and significance of the research at first,and summarizes the relevant research at home and abroad.It elaborates the real estate market and the stock market based on the relevant theories.Then,it concludes that the mutual influence between the stock market and the real estate market is asymmetric based on the empirical tests and interactive mechanisim.Specifically,the Shanghai Composite Index and the National Housing Climate Index are selected as the representative of the stock market price and the real estate market price respectively.The thesis studied the correlation between the prices of the two markets is studied based on the VAR model.It confirmed that the stock market has an impact on the real estate market,while the real estate market's impact on the stock market is not significant.The Granger causality test shows that the stock market is a one-way Granger cause of the real estate market.Based the Johnson Cointegration Test,there is a co-integration relationship between the two market and the two market are positively related in the long-term at the same time,it shows the stock market and the real estate market are in equilibrium in the long-term.The empirical analysis of the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market finds that and the correlation between two market will show differentiating characteristics due to the economic environment and politics in the different economic stages.The stock market and real estate market are balanced in the long-term,and we can forecast the real estate market through the stock maeket.Therefore,the government should adopt a variety of control methods when formulating policies.It is necessary to consider the respective characteristics and actual conditions of the stock market and the real estate market,as well as the interaction between the two markets.At the same time,investment channels should be broadened to guide investors'rational investment and avoid risk aggregation.