An Empirical Study On The Application Of Z-score Model In Domestic Credit Bond Issuers

This dissertration's main idea is to apply the famous Z-score model to China's bond issuers' credit analysis.The 5-variable Z-score model was first introduced by Edward I.Altman in 1968,when he was the professor of the Stern Business School of New York University.Z-score model,as a Multivariable financial formula,can be used to assess the financial healthiness of a company and further predict the corporate bankruptcy probability in the near future.Z-score model has a diversity application in practice and it is a good reference in credit risk analysis.Z-score model has been successfully applied into many different financial markets of developed countries.In China,many scholars has built Z-score models using listed companies' financial ratios for early warnings on financial status.As China's bond market's developing fast and many bond issuers aren't listed companies,so if we can derive a Z-score model that suits the situation of and this is the innovation of this dissertation.The financial data of bond issuers of general company debt,general corporate bonds and private debt will be analyzed in this dissertation to predict the financial healthiness and bankruptcy probability of bond issuers and discuss the applicability in this area.This dissertation will help promote the Z-score model application in bond issuers' credit analysis.