Research On The Development Of Urban Low-carbon Transportation Based On Partial Least Squares Regression

Traffic pollution is one of the three major problems faced by modern cities,and transportation is the primary cause of urban carbon emissions.Our country is in the phase of rapid development of motorization,and carbon emissions continue rising every year,therefore the low-carbon traffic is required.Through going deeply into the influence factor of traffic carbon emission,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures to the main influencing factors in order to effectively develop low-carbon transportation.The research contents are as follows:Firstly,descriptive statistical analysis is carried out on the trends of fossil energy consumption and related data in transportation.Secondly,according to the relevant research at home and abroad to summarize and screen.We selected 11 related factors that affect the carbon emission of traffic.Thirdly,this paper calculates the urban traffic carbon emission.Taking Shijiazhuang as an example,relevant basic data of Shijiazhuang from 2006 to 2015 are selected to calculate the traffic carbon emission.According to the calculation results,the growth trend of carbon emission is intuitively understood.Then,MATLAB is used to construct the partial least-squares regression model for the 11 influencing factors,and to rank the importance of influencing factors.Finally,in order to compare and contrast,this paper utilizes two common prediction models,which are grey system prediction model and multiple linear regression model to make predictive analysis of carbon emission in Shijiazhuang.The prediction results of these three models are compared and analyzed.It is proved that partial least squares regression is the best method.Based on the results of empirical analysis,corresponding suggestions for developing low-carbon transportation system are put forward.Based on the availability of factor data and the significant degree of influence,and combined with actual situation,factors selected in this paper which affects the carbon dioxide emission of urban traffic are : permanent population at the year end,GDP,disposable income of residents,highway construction investment,per capita road area,number of bus in operation,passenger volume of public transport,the number of motor vehicle,motorized passenger traffic turnover,freight turnover,and the number of tourists.This paper concludes that(1)The first three factors that have the most impact on carbon emissions are freight turnover,the number of motor vehicle,and passenger traffic turnover.(2)The first three factors that have the least impact on carbon emissions are per capita road area,passenger volume of public transport,and vehicles operated by the end of the year.(3)Carbon emissions are negatively correlated with bus passenger volume.The large number of bus passengers means a high share of public transport,which implies that the use of private cars is reduced by residents,and hence reducing the carbon emissions of urban transport.According to the conclusion,this paper recommends that(1)Developing supply chain logistics and reducing freight turnover.(2)Learning from experience and limiting the growth of private cars.(3)Strong development of public transport system and increased passenger turnover.(4)Carrying out low Carbon transportation campaign.(5)Making full use of idle resources and other countermeasures.