The Probability Of Power Generation With Renewable Energy Can Be Used To Study The Transmission Capacity

With the rapid development of renewable energy power generation,the capacity of renewable energy grids is increasing.Compared with traditional power generation forms,renewable energy has randomness and instability,and the integration of renewable energy power stations will increase system instability.Study the impact of grid-connected renewable energy generation on the system is very important.Available Transfer Capability is one of the important indicators reflecting the safety and stability margin of the power system.With the development of renewable energy and the randomness of power systems,the calculation of probability available transfer capability has become the main direction of research in recent years.First of all,this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the current available transmission capacity research methods.By comparing the principles of Latin hypercube sampling and Monte Carlo sampling,it is proposed to replace the Monte Carlo sampling method with Latin hypercube sampling method.And established a calculation model of available transfer capability based on optimal power flow.This paper is based on the rapid development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation.Taking into account the reliability of wind farms and the reliability of photovoltaic power generation,wind farm output models and photovoltaic power station models are established under various operating models.More in line with the actual operating state of renewable energy generators;Then use the Weibull distribution model to simulate wind speed and the Beta distribution to simulate solar irradiance.The actual active output of the renewable energy power station is analyzed by the active power output model of the wind power station and the active power output model of the photovoltaic power station;Secondly,the modeling and analysis of a series of uncertain factors in the power system with renewable energy generation are carried out.Sampling the system state of wind and light separately connected and wind and light coexisting and grid-connected by Latin hypercube sampling method;And using the primal dual interior point method to solve the probability of the system in each state,the available transmission capacity,and statistical system probabilities available transfer capability assessment indicators,the effect of grid-connected renewable energy on the transfer capability of the system probability is evaluated by many examples.Finally,the research directions of the probability of generating electricity with renewable energy can be summarized and forecasted.