| As the prevalence of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases continues to rise and the financial burden of diseases continue to increase,based on the traditional Chinese medicine philosophy "Treat disease by preventing illness before it began" and "Nip in the bud" and the "Healthy China 2030" blueprint published by the State Council,and the current situations that the risk assessment of the impact of meteorological factors on cardiocerebrovascular diseases in different climate types and different population subgroups and the related predictions are less involved.This study sets Funan County in Fuyang City,Anhui Province and Jinping County in Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture,Guizhou Province as the target research areas.Using the ground observation meteorological data and inpatient record data in Funan and Jinping County from 2015 to 2016,the variation trends of meteorological factors and different population subgroups due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases were analyzed.This thesis studies the responses of different population subgroups hospitalized for cardio-cerebrovascular diseases to meteorological elements and the time series prediction of hospitalization of cardiocerebrovascular diseases.Four main conclusions are generalized as:(1)The average temperature and inpatients of both counties showed an upward trend during the study period.From the perspective of monthly change of inpatients,the number of inpatients with cardio-cerebrovascular diseases was the lowest in February,and the most in March which represents spring.From the perspective of subgroup analysis,the inpatients number of elderly group was the lowest in February,and the middle-aged group was the highest in March;the elderly and middle-aged subgroups accounted for more than 90% of the total cases and the elderly group had more cases than the middle-aged group.It indicates that the main body of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases is mainly elderly and middle-aged;the elderly in the two counties have more female hospitalizations than men in the whole year.(2)The response of the cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in the two counties to the average temperature was inconsistent: the cumulative lag risk at the temperature peaks of 5°C and 27°C in Funan County peaked and showed a bimodal response;while Jinping County only reached a peak at 6°C,demonstrating a single peak response,which indicates Jinping County has potential to be a summer resort.(3)Drastic temperature changes(including large temperature drop within 24 hours and sharp temperatures fluctuations within a day)in both counties will lead to anincrease in the relative risk of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and there will be some lag effect.The middle-aged subgroups of the two counties responded strongest to the daily temperature range.The elderly subgroup in Jinping County and the male subgroup Funan County responded strongest to the 24-hour drastic cooling.(3)The effect of humidity on cardio-cerebrovascular diseases is clear,that is,the risk of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases increases under high humidity conditions,what’s more,the lag effect exist.(4)The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)process is based on the fact that the peak fitting is more accurate than Backward Selection of Multivariate Regression and the short-term forecasting trend is more realistic.The prediction accuracy of CCVD inpatients in Funan County is more than 84% and the Pearson coefficient is 0.60.Therefore,this method has the potential to develop into a core application technology as forecasting the patients in large hospitals.The accuracy of predictions with the iterative correction process of continuous integration of initial data and new data combined with short-term forecasting data will continue to increase,thus facilitating the rational allocation and management of medical resources. |
PDF Full Text Request