Aging, Investment In Fixed Assets And Economic Growth

Since the reform and opening up,China has started from a backward economic development level.With the advantage of population,it has quickly formed a complete industrial system in the short term.China 's labor force and fixed asset investment have formed double support.However,it is clear that "labor dependence" and "investment path dependence",these two types of extensive development models,cannot achieve effective long-term support for economic growth.China's economic growth has gradually become exhausted.At present,China's macroeconomic development has entered the deep-water zone of structural transformation,and deepening reform is faced with the interference of complex factors.The aging population and the weakening of fixed asset investment constitute a long-term and sustained negative impact.With this as the background,focusing on the sustainability of economic development and examining the impact of population aging and investment on economic development will help clarify the structural issues facing the current macroeconomic “turnover” and “adjustment”.This article will analyze the relationship between population aging,fixed asset investment,and their impact on economic growth.The main content of the paper is as follows:First of all,this paper combs the research progress and related theories of the relationship between aging at home and abroad,investment in fixed assets and economic growth.This paper analyzes the current status of China's aging,fixed asset investment and economic growth,and preliminary explores the characteristics of the coordinated development relationship of the three in different regions by building a system coupling model.Secondly,based on the fixed-effect model,this paper focuses on the specific effects of aging and fixed asset investment on economic growth.On the one hand,there may be an interaction mechanism between aging and fixed asset investment.In order to confirm whether there is an interaction between the two,the article introduces the intersection of aging and fixed asset investment,and discusses the synergy between the two.On the other hand,this article considers that there may be periodic characteristics of synergistic effects.This article introduces the threshold model to judge.In addition,through the introduction of intermediary effects,this article further explores the transmission mechanism and path of the impact of aging and fixed asset investment on economic growth.Finally,this paper introduces the ESDA method to discuss the spatial distribution pattern and characteristics of aging,investment and economic growth among provinces.This paper builds a spatial econometric model on the basis of incorporating geospatial factors,and discusses the spatial correlation characteristics of the effects of aging and fixed asset investment on economic growth.The research results show that: first of all,from the perspective of aging and fixed asset investment,aging has significantly slowed down economic growth.Fixed asset investment has always played a positive role in promoting economic growth,but this role has shown obvious Regional heterogeneity.Secondly,aging and fixed asset investment have further influenced economic growth through a synergistic mechanism.The increase in fixed asset investment has made aging's inhibitory effect on economic growth decreased,and vice versa;The results of the panel threshold model show that when fixed asset investment crosses the threshold,the effect of aging on economic growth will change from inhibition to promotion;From the perspective of the impact of aging and fixed asset investment on economic growth,both of them will affect economic growth through three types of intermediaries,including industrial structure,employment,and technological innovation,but there are obvious differences in the impact mechanisms of the three types of intermediaries.Finally,the spatial econometric model shows that there is space spillover between aging and investment.Aging has an inhibitory effect on the economic growth of this region and neighboring regions.Investment has a promoting effect on the economic growth of the region,but it will produce negative space spillovers to other regions.This will exacerbate the imbalance between regions.The interactive item of aging and investment can promote economic growth.A more reasonable investment can not only reduce the negative impact of the aging of the region on the economy,but also guide the investment in neighboring provinces to achieve similar economic results.