Warning Model And Empirical Study Of Risk Of The P2P Network Lending Platform

Rising and development of P2P network lending not only to make up for lack of personal and commercial bank in the small and micro business loans,but also broaden the financing channels for small and micro enterprises.Combined with its information technology and the Internet on the development of China’s financial market and inclusive financial system the building has played a huge role in promoting.In the past 2015 years,P2P net loan industry during usher in the development of "a new wave" has entered a critical "turning point." In the number of platforms,trading volume and popularity shot up at the same time,due to improper low barriers to entry,lack of supervision and risk management platform operators.Since 2011,it has been found in the platform collapse,foot and other issues,to the industry’s health a negative impact on development.At the same time,domestic and foreign scholars to explore the risk of P2P net loan platform exists and how its supervision of risk prevention and control platform of P2P net loan has played a positive role in promoting.Some scholars have studied the risk of early-warning financial institutions,but the P2P net loan risk early warning platform studies have not covered.Therefore,this paper P2P net loan platform for the study,build loan-platform risk warning indicator system of P2P network,select 30 P2P net loan platform for the sample platform,collecting and collating data every month since 2015,a P2P net loan Empirical research platform risk.The first chapter reviews the relevant literature on P2P net loan platform risks;The second chapter summarizes the concept of P2P net loan platform,P2P net loan industry development,industry development status P2P,P2P industry trends and P2P networks the third chapter analyzes the principle of P2P net loan platform risk warning indicator system construction,and then build P2P net loan platform risk warning indicator system;fourth chapter firstly collecting and collating empirical analysis of five risk loans require internet presence data,followed by the index of 12 networks platform lending risk factor analysis,based on the weight factor and the score variable specific values constructed using K-means clustering algorithm P2P network lending platform risk status classification,P2P net loan platform risk warning indicator threshold division were as follows:F[1.235,2.485]when a safe state,when F[0.075,1.235]when basic security,when F[-0.66,0.075]when a moderate risk,when F[-1.06,-0.66]when a serious risk,the model results obtained are as follows:30 in 90%belong to the network platform operators greater risk-free security status,of which 30%belong to the basic network platform security,56.7%belong to the network platform moderate risk,and four belong to the network platform security status,only 10%of the network platform there is a serious risk during operations;then the use of BP artificial neural network of P2P net loan platform "risk threshold" early warning models to predict the future 4 risk status 30 months sample platform;fifth chapter from the government departments,regulatory bodies and the platform itself summed up in three aspects of sustainable development of P2P network platform policy recommendations.