Research On The Macroeconomic Effects Of China's Treasury Bonds

National debt can not only influence the level of employment and help keep the price remain stable,but can also affect the increasing of economy by exerting various economic variables,which are the three aims of macroscopic readjustment and control.Since the issuance of national debt in a large scale in 1994 and the implementation of proactive fiscal policy in 1997,people started to pay close attention to national debt because its huge quantity.Here are some advices for Chinese national debt by using the modern Economic Quantitative Methods from the angle of national debt’s macroeconomic effect according to drawing lessons from interrelated research of others.The first chapter introduces the running state of debt of China.The two chapter talks about the public expenditure of national debt and the tax-increasing effect.After the research of national debt fiscal expansion effect and government consumption effect,national debt has some finance expanding effect whether it includes debt service or not.This proves that national debt can provide convenience for government to raise capital so that to fulfill their expanding predilection which looses finance budget in a certain extent and bring down the service efficiency of financial funds.Chapter three analyzes national debt’s labor employment effect.By creating single order auto regression model of people being hired,it turned out that proactive fiscal policy centered on large national debt has changed the marching route of employment and has an obvious pulling effect on labor employment.But in a long time of future China will face a austere employment pressure all along.National debt policy should make some adjustment basing on the elasticity of employment so that it will have a more positive effect.Chapter four talks about the smoothness effect of tax.According to the theory,the model shows that macroscopically tax rate should be a random walk process,while it is a false in China.That means national debt has little effect on smoothening tax rate which calls for the adjustment of national debt and tax policy.Chapter five explains the multiplier effect of national debt.Using the IS-LM model,we made a derivation to the financial policy multiplier and take measurements and calculate to Chinese financial policy multiplier,finding that Chinese financial multiplier has undulated between 1.46 and 1.61 over the years.According to this,by predicting the increase expenditure of Chinese finance and the economy growth effect,national debt has had a driving force to the economy growth to some extent,but not enough.Chapter six is to draw the relevant conclusion on the basis of the theories above.