A Study On The Relationship Between RMB Internationalization And Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale

From the perspective of the current global economic situation,the implementation of RMB settlement of cross-border trade is the starting point for the internationalization of the RMB,which can directly determine the future of RMB internationalization.The RMB settlement of cross-border trade has two major characteristics: one is the rapid expansion of the scale;the second is the import and export of cross-border RMB settlement is a disequilibrium situation.Cross-border RMB settlement imbalance makes our country import payment in RMB is more than the use of export settlement,which further increased the stock of China's foreign exchange reserves.And government centralized management of huge foreign exchange reserves is a major characteristic of China can not be ignored,despite dollar-based foreign-exchange reserves can ensure the relative safety and stability of the exchange rate system,enhancing the comprehensive national strength and external payments,But at the same time,huge foreign exchange reserves of centralized management have brought many difficulties to the internal control of China's economy.It is in order to maintain the relative stability of the exchange rate,the central bank had to passively recurring into the foreign exchange market to purchase foreign exchange,it will inevitably cause the supply increase of Base money in financial market,causing inflation of prices,and bring a lot of resistance to economic growth.While the growth of a country's economy,the stability of the exchange rate and inflation is the long-term determinants of the internationalization of domestic currency.Cross border trade settlement measures the extent of a country's currency internationalization from the pricing perspective.So,this paper through the perspective of cross-border trade settlement,analyzes the status quo of China's cross-border RMB trade settlement development and its influence on the variation of foreign exchange reserves,and through empirical study of the relationship between the scale of foreign exchange reserves and the internationalization of RMB,try to find out whether the scale of foreign exchange reserves has certain effects on the internationalization of RMB.This thesis is divided into six parts to explain the issue in detail: the first chapter describes the background and significance of the research,the summary of domestic and foreign literature,as well as the innovation and deficiency of the article.The second chapter sort and explain the theories of currency internationalization,the choice of settlement currency in international trade and international balance of payments.The third chapter is about the development of RMB internationalization from the perspective of foreign trade and bilateral currency exchange.By analyzing the favorable conditions of RMB cross-border trade settlement,providing theoretical foundation for further analysis of foreign exchange reserves impact on RMB internationalization and select variables.The fourth chapter from the perspective of international payments,analysis of the development of foreign exchange reserve,and the implementation of cross-border RMB settlement on the effect of variation of foreign exchange reserves.Then,the indirect and direct method is used to analyze the influence of the change of foreign exchange reserve scale on the settlement of RMB and the internationalization of RMB.The fifth chapter,through the establishment of VAR model,using long-term cointegration test and Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition method,empirical study on the long and short-term impact of foreign exchange reserves on RMB internationalization.Finally,combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations.