Research On The Linkage Between U.S. Ten-year Treasury Bond Yield And Gold Price

Since the United States entered the channel of rising interest rate,the interest rates and capital gains rate increased,the devaluation pressures of other global economies increased,a large number of cross-border capital entered the US ten-year-bond market and gold market.The risk aversion of investors expanded rapidly,the global financial market turmoil.As two of the most important hedge assets in the world,the US ten year bonds and London spot gold play the role of safe haven again.In different economic trends,US 10-year bonds and gold show a different trend: When an economic crisis occurs,International hot money moved into the hedge market,which made the US 10-year bond yields decline,and Gold prices are on the rise;on the contrary,When the economy is prosperous,International hot money tended to sell US 10-year bonds and gold,and moved into the risk market,Due to the withdrawal of hot money,US10-year bond yields and gold prices also showed the opposite trend.This article is based on the US 10-year Treasury yield and gold's unique hedging function,To explore the two in different economic times in the trend of the linkage and which has a better hedging function.This paper is divided into five chapters: the first chapter expounds the background and significance of the research,on the basis of previous literature,make the overall evaluation system,and introduces the research methods,technology roadmap and innovations;the second chapter introduces the related theoretical basis,the concept of safe haven assets are defined then,analysis of hedging unique ten year U.S.Treasuries and gold;the third chapter analyzes the conduction path of us ten year Treasury yields and gold price movements,use the Asian financial crisis,the Internet bubble burst,the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis as a symbol,1997-2016 is divided into three stages of economic development the previous study after the outbreak of the economic crisis and the economic recovery trend of us ten year Treasury yields and gold prices during the performance,a negative relationship is found between the two assets;The four chapter is the empirical part,take the United States 1997-2016 ten year bond market yields and the London gold spot market trading day closing price as thesample data,using time series analysis further confirmed the negative linkage to the U.S.ten year Treasury yields and gold prices between the fifth chapter;from the three aspects of government institutions,institutional investors and ordinary individual investors according to the current economic situation and gives corresponding policy suggestions in order to promote investment,the domestic financial market more perfect,the balance of international reserve allocation,institutions and individual investors to avoid risks and increase the value,access to investment income.The study found that US 10-year bond yields and gold prices have a reverse linkage between each other,and gold has a better performance in hedging market.Based on the result,our government should take appropriate measures to optimize the international reserve structure,and invigorate China's national debt market?gold market and other safe-haven market,Improve the recognition of these markets in international investors,To avoid the economic turmoil and the US monetary policy brought about by the financial market turmoil.For institutional investors,they should pay attention to the economic situation in time,invest in different products with changes in the business trends,to avoid investment risk.For ordinary individual investors,in view of the small amount of funds,they can properly configure some gold investment,improve the portfolio,to maximize the investment income.