Research On The Change Of China’s Consumption Goods Import Policy Based On Punctuated Equilibrium Theory

In recent years,consumption as one of the three carriages that stimulate the growth of GDP has attracted more and more attention to its function of stimulating China’s economic growth,which become more remarkable after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.In this context,China’s import policy of consumption goods has also ushered in a period of intensive adjustment.At the same time,although the import policy of consumption goods has gone through a number of practical adjustments,the theoretical research on the changes of relevant policies remains quite deficient.Thus the analysis about the change of China’s consumption goods import policy is of great importance,not only because it responding to the current focous,but also it can provide reference for the improvement of relevant policies and make up for the gap of relevant theoretical research.From the perspective of the policy itself,China’s consumption goods import policy has gone through remarkably different periods,that is,"limiting-adjustment-increaseing-expansion".It can maintain stability for a long period of time and gradually change with the changes of political and economic enviormant at the time.However,occasionally there will be dramatic changes and intensive adjustments,which coincides with the process of policy change described by Punctuated-Equilibrium Theory.This thesis is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is about introduction.The second chapter is cases study,in which the author highlights and describes the chronological period of the change of China’s consumption goods import policy,mainly according to the orientation on consumption goods import policy of the government’s previous-year work report.The third chapter is the analysis of the changes of China’s import policy of consumption goods from the perspective of Punctuated-Equilibrium Theory.The author analyzes the changes of China’s import policy of consumption goods by using the Theory of Punctuated Equilibrium.What’s more,the author attempts to introduce the relevant explanations of the theory of Advocacy Coalition Framework to supplement the contents of this thesis,so as to demonstrate the competition between the coalition advocating to protect the consumption goods industry at home and the coalition advocating to encourage imports of consumption goods.The fourth chapter is empirical analysis.In this chapter,the author sorts out the government’s attitude,and value orientation toward consumption goods import policy in different periods,and then calculates and analyzes the relevant policy documents,trade data and the change of tax rate respectively.The fifth chaper is conclusion.The conclusions of this thesis can be as follows:the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory has a certain degree of fittness and explanatory power in explaining the change of China’s consumption goods import policy,but not all of them can be copied,some concepts should be localized to a certain extent.Compared to the policy monopoly of traditional Iron Triangles composed of Congress,interest groups and government,value orientation and attitude of our central government and higher authorities have more obvious influence on the policy change.Focus events play an important role in the agenda setting,but it makes senses by means of arousing the attention of the higher authorities,especially the main leaders.At the same time,the overall political and economic environment plays an important role in policy change.Furthermore,bounded rationality has a strong application of fittness in explaining the process of policy change.