The Impact Of Financial Shock On China ’S Economic

In recent years,under the background of economic and financial globalization,the international economy has become more and more complicated and diversified with the deepening of the process of economic globalization,and the economic development between countries has become closer to the financial market.In 2007,the subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the US real estate market was transmitted from the financial market to the real economy,from the domestic market to the global market,including China Global economic development has caused varying degrees of trauma,the crisis reveals that there exists a tight connection between the financial sector shocks and the real economic fluctuations.In order to explore the relationship between the impact of financial market on macroeconomic fluctuation,this paper attempts to introduce two types of financial shocks under the external financing premium mechanism,and analyzes the dynamic impact of the model before and after the financial shock on China’s macroeconomic and financial indicators,exploring the Mechanism and Intensity of Financial Shock in China’s Financial Market.The benchmark model for this paper is similar to SW model.On the basis of the benchmark model,the financial accelerator model with the external financing premium mechanism is constructed as the unified analysis frame,and analyzes the model by introducing the external financial premium shocks and the entrepreneur net wealth shocks.This paper uses data of macroeconomic and financial market in China from 2000Q1 to 2016Q4,and estimating the benchmark model,the external financing premium model and the external financing premium model which introduces the financial shock,the parameters in a Bayesian way.Next,the response of the main economic variables to the single exogenous shocks in the three models is analyzed by the impact response function,and the influence of the external shock on the economic fluctuation is analyzed by the variance decomposition.First,the model parameters are calibrated and Bayesian estimates.The comparison of the likelihood of the three models shows that the introduction of financial accelerators and financial shocks improves the ability of the model to fit the data,and proves that there is a financial accelerator effect in China.Secondly,through the shock-response analysis,it is found that China’s major economic variables have a more significant and rapid response to financial shocks,and the effect of entrepreneur net wealth on output,consumption,investment and capital is greater than that of external financing premium.From the perspective of policy rule shock,the external financing premium mechanism with financial shock has a more significant amplification effect and rapid response;On the impact of supply shock,there is no financial impact of the external financing premium mechanism has a more significant amplification effect and rapid response,but there are financial shocks,the impact of consumption on the impact of supply longer.Finally,the variance decomposition results show that finance explaining 40.7%of total output fluctuations,35.6%of investment fluctuations and 36.3%of consumer volatility,and has a significant contribution to the lending rate and loan volume fluctuations in financial markets.At the same time,considering the impact of financial shocks,the impact of monetary policy impact on output,investment,consumption and inflation has increased,indicating that the external financing premium mechanism with financial shock has a magnifying effect on the contribution rate of monetary policy.