A Research On Impact Of The Arbitrage Behavior In RMB Cross - Border Trade Settlement

With the cross-border renminbi settlement business and the rapid development of RMB offshore market, the use of cross-border RMB settlement in the offshore and onshore market arbitrage phenomenon also caused widespread concern. Therefore, it can not be simply argued that arbitrage trading is only a speculation that acts as a market price discovery function. It should be noted that arbitrage transactions are increasingly diverting from genuine merchandise trade, which reflects the attributes of asset transactions.In this paper, the author puts forward the relationship between qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and analyzes the problem - the problem - the solution of the problem.From the theoretical point of view and the empirical perspective, this paper focuses on the practical analysis and empirical analysis, and sets the arbitrage transaction to RMB cross -border trade settlement The impact of in-depth analysis and systematic discussion.This paper begins with a review of the literature on the settlement of the offshore market and the cross-border RMB trade. The paper uses the monetary selection theory and the general rationale of arbitrage transactions to sort out the manifestations of arbitrage behavior in cross-border trade settlement. Secondly, it focuses on the arbitrage behavior in RMB cross-border trade settlement. Through the description of the development of cross-border RMB trade settlement and the basic difference between offshore and onshore market, the relevant settlement policy is compared , And then in-depth analysis of the offshore market, the exchange rate formation mechanism of the general principles and conditions, as well as the interest rate formation mechanism of the external performance and internal driving factors. In this paper, three typical models of arbitrage transactions are briefly introduced through the case analysis of the case analysis: margin arbitrage, spread arbitrage and portfolio arbitrage. On the basis of contrasting several types of arbitrage differences, with a view to better articulating two important variables, exchange rates and interest rates that affect arbitrage transactions. According to the empirical rules of cross-border trade settlement, the cross-border RMB arbitrage index constructed in this paper is based on the ratio of the sharp ratio to the expected price of financial assets., After removing the influence of the fluctuation of the exchange rate fluctuation, the relative interest rate income index is obtained, and the relative weight expectation is calculated according to the scale of the RMB trade settlement and the corresponding weight is calculated. Finally, based on the theoretical framework of arbitrage trading, this paper analyzes the influence of arbitrage transaction on RMB import and export trade, and tests the relative importance of arbitrage trading, Chinese trade scale and trade structure change.The results show that the arbitrage transaction significantly increases the proportion of RMB import trade accounting for total imports and dominates the driving factors. The RMB arbitrage index can explain the change of RMB import trade settlement around 52%.The increase in the proportion of trade on RMB cross-border Trade contribution of about 28% of the fluctuations, the impact of trade structure is about 2.8%. It is suggested that the monetary authorities should further introduce the floating mechanism of the RMB exchange rate interval, pay more attention to the market behavior of the micro-finance subject, speed up the pace of the domestic financial system reform, cultivate the micro-subject with international competitiveness and anti-risk ability, prevent and cope with the RMB internationalization process In the cross-border arbitrage risk.