Application Research Of CBR Financial Early Warning Model Based On Enterprise Life Cycle

Enterprises not only get benefit and opportunities in fierce competition of the market-oriented economy,but also face various potential risks and crises,and then are confronted with more uncertainty inevitably.Thus,in order to get better survival and development,enterprises must always pay close attention to their own financial situations,must be able to observe the signs of enterprise financial crises any time,and get ready to deal with all kinds of crises.So enterprises have realized that is so important to predict financial crises,it makes the financial crises early warning not only become academic study thesis and hot topic,but also become an important problem for business enterprises,specially listed companies must take it seriously.There are many scholars have explored the financial early warning,but most scholars focus on the research methods or research Angles,few pay attention to the combination of both.Hereto,Based on the enterprise life cycle theory,and taken full advantage of Case Reasoning(Case-based Reasoning,CBR)methods,this paper researches on financial early warning.First of all,this paper introduces enterprise life cycle theory,financial early warning theory and related,makes in-depth analysis of CBR related decision-making technology,and the advantages of CBR technology.Then summarizes the use of existing models in the existing problems,the advantages of using CBR technology research to study financial early warning,As well as the meaning of applying enterprise life cycle theory to study the financial early warning.And discusses the standard of enterprise life cycle phase in detail,paves the way for CBR case sample library.After selection of general financial indicators,uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine the financial index weights,as well as the nearest neighbor method is used to complete the CBR case retrieval.Then select some listed companies in manufacturing industry as the sample,according to the relevant theories and research methods mentioned above,analyze financial early warning and the empirically,get conclusion of early warning.Lastly,the research conclusion and the existing deficiency,and the future development direction in the field are discussed.The study shows that using enterprise life cycle and CBR to study financial early warning,not only consider dynamics of financial early warning,but more importantly can predict alert degree of the crisis from the similar cases,so the cost is low and prediction accuracy is high.Therefore,by the means of establishment of financial early warning analysis,enterprises not only can predict their own financial situations,also can help to daily operations and managements,make ensure their sustainable and healthy developments.